Different from Trump 1.0. Eight days after the election, details are still vague, but here are some educated guesses.
His temperament hasn’t mellowed; he’s still a nasty person without conscience or morals. Gone are the goofy smiles; it’s grimly serious now. Over the years his ideology has hardened from wishy-washy to hard-right. His governing style will be to command, not preside over cabinet discussions. CNN says inside his administration “his word will be law.”
Trump’s second administration will be less chaotic. His team has spent years planning and organizing this. His emphasis on personnel loyalty makes sense, because it’ll minimize roadblocks to what he wants to do, and make implementing his agenda run more smoothly. Project 2025 isn’t the agenda, but will influence many aspects of it.
He won’t be a unifying president; he has no use for people who disagree with him. Reason and logic will play a limited role in his government, and science will be brushed aside; Trump operates on a visceral, not intellectual, plane. His followers — poorly informed, immersed in rightwing propaganda, full of anger, and eager to tear the system down — are the same.
Administrations come and go, but this is different. Trump is a revolutionary and will steer a course to drastically change government and society. He’s appointing “revolutionaries to tear down governance” (see story here). His immigration czar, Heinrich Heydrich Stephen Miller, reflects Trump’s sentiments when he says, “America is for Americans and Americans only!” (see story here). His victory gives Christian nationalists a beachhead inside government, backed by a friendly Supreme Court.
Trump’s foreign policy will be based on “what’s in it for us?” Isolationism permeates his party, and he reflects that. This bodes ill for Ukraine, and possibly Taiwan too, although most of Trump’s advisers are China hardliners. Still, it’s hard to visualize him coming to Taiwan’s defense. Palestinian supporters will regret Harris’s defeat.
Picking Marco Rubio for secretary of state cheered observers hoping for a moderate and rational approach to foreign affairs. But he was chosen for loyalty, not his level-headedness, and Trump will call the shots. If Trump jettisons our alliances, more countries may seek nuclear weapons, leading to nuclear proliferation and exacerbating global tensions.
Immigration and the border will be a top domestic priority. Not following through would break a key promise to his supporters. Rounding up and deporting 11 million illegals will be difficult and may cost $1 trillion. Republicans in Congress may balk at the cost, forcing Trump to scale back his ambitions. But regardless of scale, it will be ugly with Miller in charge.
Trump’s economic policies will bring higher inflation. Tax cuts add to deficits, and tariffs raise consumer prices. He’ll pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but that’s inflationary, too. He may not get all he wants; Powell will helm the Fed until mid-2026, GOP deficit hawks in Congress could nix new tax cuts (see story here), and big tariffs could hit a roadblock at the Supreme Court (see story here).
Will checks and balances work? Trump is poised to become the most powerful president of modern times. But Sen. McConnell is hostile to Trump, and will use his influence to retain the filibuster. That will give Democrats the power to block non-budgetary changes to government structure and programs. Courts also may not accept everything Trump does.
How about The Resistance? The bureaucracy will throw obstacles in his path. The military will resist inappropriate orders. Outside groups will challenge his policies in court. Business groups will oppose tariffs (see story here) and deporting workers. Senate Democrats can filibuster efforts t0 repeal Obamacare, eliminate federal departments, or unwind the civil service. Trump can’t silence media criticism.
What else could block a radical agenda like Project 2025? Normal politics. House GOPers thinking of re-election will be wary of highly unpopular initiatives. There will be special elections to replace Vance and Rubio, and if Trump is too extreme out of the gate, the GOP’s grip on those Senate seats could loosen. Trump’s own egotistical desire to be popular may deter him from messing around with popular programs.
Will he pursue retribution against people on his enemies list? There are substantial legal impediments. Could he bypass those by ordering arbitrary arrests and detentions of American citizens? During the Civil War, Lincoln suspended habeas corpus, and Trump may invoke emergency powers and try to use that as precedent for jailing people he hates. But this could spook his own supporters, and he might not get anyone to carry it out.
What about misusing the military? Trump wants compliant generals, but their loyalty is to the institution. The Pentagon reportedly is making plans to resist unlawful orders from the White House (see story here). A president can replace top brass, but very few officers are willing to harm the military’s standing with the public or damage recruiting and retention. They’ll try to talk him out of any hare-brained domestic troop deployments or uses of force.