I don’t live in a GOP desert; roughly 1 of every 3 voters in my neighborhood is a Republican. But unlike in 2016 and 2020, I haven’t seen a Trump yard sign this year. I don’t see bumper stickers anymore, either, but that’s not surprising because they invite parking lot vandalism.
Trump supporters are common in Washington, especially east of the Cascades, where you’ll see “Trump” painted on barn walls or big signs made from plywood panels. But they exist in liberal Seattle, too. In 2020, Trump got 22% of the King County vote and 38% and nearly 43%, respectively, in neighboring Snohomish and Pierce counties. These three counties comprise the Seattle metro area.
Overall, though, Trump underperformed other Republican candidates that year, getting under 39% statewide, while political gadfly Loren Culp got over 43% in the governor’s race. Normally a GOP candidate can expect to get about 42% in a Washington statewide race.
Is Trump doing better in 2024? No, worse. Mid-October polls put him down 22% – 25%, depending on pollster, which translates to him getting about 32% – 35% of the vote. This should come up some, though, as “undecideds” cast ballots; and he might match his 2020 results.
Of course, he should be disdained by voters, including Republicans; he’s a convicted criminal who embraces white supremacy, is threatening to deport Washington’s Hispanic population (citizen or not), and is an adulterer and sexual harasser who opposes abortion which doesn’t sit well with women voters.
For Washington’s other GOP candidates, Trump’s toxicity is a problem. They’re trying to solve it by distancing themselves. The party’s Senate nominee, Dr. Raul Garcia, wants to talk about something else. Its gubernatorial nominee, Dave Reichert, tells the public he supports neither Trump nor Harris, but tells GOP audiences behind closed doors that he’ll vote for Trump — and then refuses to answer reporters’ questions about it.
Local GOP candidates can see evidence in polls that Trump is a drag on their chances. The best indication is that former congresswoman Jaime Herrera-Buetler, who voted to impeach Trump for the Jan. 6 insurrection (and then lost her primary), is outpolling the others. She’s at ~46%, while the rest are at ~41% or less, a 5-point difference.
Abortion isn’t on the ballot in Washington; abortion rights are enshrined in the state constitution, and Garcia woos voters by saying he’ll respect state law. However, Washington voters, particularly women, still fear a national abortion ban if Trump and a Republican Congress are elected.
The biggest local issue appears to be unaffordable housing, followed by inflation concerns. Washington voters have a nuanced view of crime (see story here), and. immigration isn’t a hot-button issue, likely because many workers at Microsoft and other tech companies are foreigners with work visas, and because eastern Washington’s agricultural economy needs migrant workers.
Washington’s better-educated population, ranking 10th among states in college degrees (details here), and 7th in per capita income (details here), predictably leans more liberal across the board. Education and income correlate with political views.
The problem for Washington Republicans is their coalition is too narrow, their policy positions don’t align with the electorate, and they can’t break free of Trump’s domination of the national party, as Herrera-Buetler’s primary defeat showed. But they haven’t elected a governor since 1980, or a U.S. Senator since 1996, so their problems predate Trump.
In Washington, Republicans have a 42% voter base. To win a majority, they must keep those voters and draw another 8%-9% from the pool of independents and conservative Democrats. The last thing they can afford is a national standard-bearer shaving 5% to 8% off their base support. Salvation for Washington Republicans, if any is to be had, lies in breaking away from Trump and MAGA and campaigning on local issues that matter to voters.
Herrera-Buetler seems to understand that, and has come closest to doing so. Evicted from Congress by her party’s fanatics, by running for a state office as a non-Trump Republican, she’s positioning herself to be an electable candidate for governor or senator someday. As the least Trumpy candidate, she’s likely to do better than any other GOP candidate in Washington’s 2024 state elections. Her fellow Washington Republicans would be wise to pay attention, even if she doesn’t quite win.