President Biden, who’s running for re-election, looks vulnerable. He has low approval ratings, many voters question his age, even many Democrats are leery of Kamala Harris succeeding him, and he could face an election-year recession.
But you can’t ignore voters’ other choice, and there’s only one. Trump, the GOP frontrunner, could be a convicted criminal by then; even if he isn’t, many voters including independents are horrified by the prospect of him returning to power. GOP Texas Sen. Jon Cornyn thinks he’s unelectable (see story here), and isn’t alone among GOP insiders in making that assessment.
If Trump isn’t the GOP nominee, DeSantis likely will be. Apart from his toxic policies, which don’t appear to sell well outside Florida, he’s not a “people person” and Republican insiders acknowledge he’s lousy at “retail” politics. In short, he has an off-putting personality that will turn off many voters. His fight with Disney also threatens to alienate big business supporters.
And there’s the abortion issue, a giant albatross that no GOP nominee will be able to escape. Even before that bird landed, Republicans had been losing the popular vote in most post-Reagan recent elections. Now, they’re even more unpopular, and have to contend with suburban women turning against them and young voters turning out to vote against them.
I’ve lived through many presidential elections, and I learned long ago they’re unpredictable. With the 2024 election still more than 18 months away, it’s too soon to guess what might happen. Biden’s health could change, so could Trump’s, or some event might drastically alter the political landscape. I wouldn’t rule out a GOP victory in 2024, but I think Republicans need to find an electable candidate, and so far they don’t have one.