If they do, they’ll have a 51-50 majority in the Senate allowing them to confirm Biden appointees and pass certain bills (assuming the filibuster is left intact) without any GOP votes. That’s a big deal, because it would greatly diminish Mitch McConnell’s leverage over Biden administration staffing and policies.
Republicans currently hold both of Georgia’s senate seats, and should have the advantage, but are trying their best to throw those seats away. Who gets them will be decided in a January 5 election.
First of all, both incumbents are embroiled in stock trading scandals; they made millions by selling stocks before the threat posed by Covid-19 was public knowledge, then buying it back after the market plunged because of Covid-19 shutdowns.
Second, Trump is attacking the incumbents of his own party for their only tepid support of his election conspiracy theories while Republican state officials go around certifying Georgia’s electoral votes for Biden and saying there was no fraud, which could depress Republican voter turnout for the Jan. 5 election.
Third, these races were always going to be close, just as the Trump-Biden race in Georgia was (Biden won by one-quarter of a percentage point), and the GOP candidates currently trail in the only poll taken since the inconclusive Nov. 3 election. That poll, by SurveyUSA (read about it here), shows the Democrats leading 52-45 in one and 50-48 in the other; but keep in mind that pre-election polls overstated Biden’s lead in Georgia (and most other places), so their actual showing in the Jan. 5 election is likely to be less.
A CNN op-ed (read it here) by two Democratic strategists published on December 3, 2020, suggested “5 steps Democrats can take” to win these races. They are:
- Maximixe the campaign effort by drawing on out-of-staters to raise money, make phone calls to voters, etc.
- Move Biden’s transition headquarters to Atlanta from his hometown in Delaware.
- Send former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama to Georgia to campaign for the Democratic candidates.
- Turn the campaign against the two GOP senators into a campaign against Trump.
- Emphasize that beating the virus is the necessary first step to rebuilding the economy. (Note, other polls have shown the virus is voters’ #1 concern and top priority.)
That’s all well and good, and those are good ideas, but turnout is king. It will come down to turnout. It’s not enough that angry Trump supporters irritated with the Republican senators for not doing more to overthrow the election results in their state may sit out the special election in a fit of pique; Democrats also must persuade the Georgia voters who put Biden over the top in their state to go to the polls one more time. Everything depends on whether they succeed in this.
Why is Georgia holding two senate elections in January? First, both senate seats were on the Nov. 3 ballot because one of them is a special election to fill the seat of a senator who resigned for health reasons (that term expires in 2023). Second, nobody got 50% of the vote in either race in the Nov. 3 election, so under Georgia law, there has to be a runoff between the top two candidates.
Meanwhile, authorities are investigating a Florida lawyer for scheming to vote in the Georgia Senate elections using his brother’s address; read that story here.
It all looks so simple and plain on paper. When the Senate is that close often a minor faction suddenly emerges from the Democratic side. Such as the Dixiecrats, of which Biden would be very comfortable. Or that independent Bernie Sanders flexes, and does not always walk in olckstep for political points, and getting policies he supports leverage.
In any case the stage will be set for the 2022 shellacking.