Kamala Harris will never be president.
I’m not saying she won’t run; but if she does, she won’t be elected. The 2024 election proved it.
Sure, she was dealt a tough hand to play, and played it better than anyone had a right to expect. She was a last-minute nominee, saddled with Biden’s unpopularity, and a restive electorate. And she’s a decent candidate in many respects.
But she failed to rise to the occasion. In an election focusing on the economy, she lacked a clear economic message. Immigration also was on voters’ minds, but she didn’t get voters to trust her on that issue, either. (Read story here.)
Most significantly, she couldn’t hold onto working-class voters, for decades the mainstay of Democratic electoral success. The Democratic Party now owns college-educated voters, because they’re more rational, and their policies make more sense. But those voters are outnumbered by non-degreed voters, who are easily swayed by Trump’s crude populist appeals.
Harris also is a woman, and America has never elected a woman president. I do think our country is moving closer to breaking the final glass ceiling in its politics; but I suspect a majority of voters just aren’t there yet. Even hardcore Democrats, more open to the idea than anyone, won’t ignore they lost to Trump both times with a woman nominee.
Of course, the 2028 election will be very different from the 2024 election, just as 2024 was unlike 2020. On paper, at least, Trump seems likely to revive inflation. He can’t solve the housing affordability crisis. And he could lead America into foreign policy and health care disasters.
The biggest difference is Trump won’t be on the 2028 ballot. Even if the partisan Supreme Court allowed him to run, he’ll simply be too old and tired. (Steve Bannon and others argue the 22nd Amendment only bars three consecutive terms (see story here), but that should be a bridge too far for any court.)
But Vance, the automatic front runner for the 2028 GOP nomination, won’t be an easy candidate to defeat. Even if Trump exits, MAGA won’t go away. If Republicans lose in 2028, they’ll be defeated by their own policies.
But Democrats will need a candidate who knows how to harness into the voter frustration that defeated Harris in 2024, and it’s hard to imagine her being that candidate.