You wouldn’t think so, and Democratic strategists didn’t believe it, until they saw some shocking polling results.
There are a million more registered Republicans than Democrats in the Sunshine State, where about 11 million people voted in 2020.
They’ve elected a radically rightwing GOP governor whose anti-democratic antics are legendary, GOP legislative supermajorities, and statewide races have been out of reach to Democratic candidates time after time.
But several — not just one — fresh polls suggest the state could give its electoral votes to Kamala Harris and throw out incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Scott (see story here) in the November 2024 elections now just weeks away.
Nationally, media reporting depicts the presidential race as tied and coming down to the wire in the decisive swing states. Meanwhile, the Democrats are trying to hang onto their 51-49 Senate majority, but face the certain loss of a seat in West Virginia and a probable loss in Montana, so desperately need to flip a Republican seat elsewhere with very few opportunities to do so.
Wins in Florida would be huge, and solve a lot of problems for them. But how realistic are those new hopes? Abortion is the key that could unlock Florida’s electoral vote and Senate seat. There’s an abortion rights initiative on the ballot that could drive high turnout and a swing away from conservative Republicans.
Florida’s Republicans are extremely opposed to abortion, but a majority of Floridians support abortion rights. After watching abortion rights initiatives pass in other red states, Gov. DeSantis is unconstitutionally sending police to homes of voters who signed the abortion rights initiative and threatening a TV station’s employees with criminal prosecution for airing pro-initiative ads.
Sen. Scott’s Democratic challenger, Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, is appealing to independents and disaffected Republicans on abortion and border issues. In her campaigning, she criticizes the GOP for defeating — at Trump’s instigation — a bipartisan border bill that would have added border patrol agents and provided funding for technology to intercept drugs at border crossings. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is reaching out to Florida’s large retiree population, arguing that Trump’s policies are unfriendly to seniors.
Blue-state Democrats watching Florida from afar shouldn’t hold their breath for victories there. Florida can’t be counted on to deliver the White House and Senate to the Democrats this fall. But multiple polls are showing both races there within margins of error, in a state that everyone assumed was a lock for Republicans. This just might mean that a majority of Floridians have had enough of GOP rule.
Related story: Can a Democrat defeat Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas? The polls show a close race, and Cruz is nervous, but this race probably is 1 or 2 percentage points out of reach. (Read story here.)
Photo below: Abortion rights activists campaigning in Florida
