Kansas voters soundly rejected Republican efforts to amend the state constitution to pave the way for the legislature to ban abortions, which is being hailed as a “massive victory” for abortion supporters.
Now pundits everywhere are reading all sorts of things into it. Let’s try to figure out what just happened in Kansas.
A big turnout, for one thing, obviously motivated by the abortion issue. That might help Democrats in the fall elections, if it carries over into other states (see story here). But maybe not as much as some pundits assume, because abortion isn’t directly on the ballot in most places (see story here), although stark differences in candidates’ positions could drive turnout even there (see story here). MSNBC, though, thinks Republicans everywhere “could be looking at a fearsome political backlash” in November (see story here).
It’s a setback for right-to-life Republicans, who thought they’d won big after Trump helped them seize control of the Supreme Court, but instead may have a toxic mess on their hands. Here’s their problem:
(1) About 70% of Americans support abortion in some circumstances, so the Court’s decision is unpopular.
(2) Most Americans want more, not less, rights; and don’t like having rights taken away.
(3) Republicans played dirty pool to pack the court with abortion opponents, and all three of Trump’s appointees lied in their confirmation hearings about their intentions with respect to Roe v. Wade. The result is a court that three-fourths of Americans consider illegitimate.
(4) And, on top of all that, they had the incredibly bad luck to have a 10-year-old rape victim get pregnant, and be forced by their policies to travel to another state to get aborted (and then compounded their errors by denying the girl’s existence, only to see the rapist promptly get arrested, and ham-fistedly threatening the doctor who legally performed the abortion and properly reported it).
(5) Nor does it help that Republicans are threatening to jail women who travel to states where abortion is legal, which makes them look like a Gestapo.
Beyond driving a big voter turnout, here’s how a CNN analyst reads it: “Given the chance to support abortion rights, even in a reliably Republican state in the middle of the country, voters will support abortion rights” (see story here).
It could be that Kansas voters, including many Republicans, simply want abortion rights. But it’s hard to imagine there are very many voters anywhere who aren’t aware of (3), (4), and (5) above. And perhaps they fear Republican legislatures will go overboard if free to pass anti-abortion laws; some are openly discussing imprisoning women who travel to other states for abortions, and imposing the death penalty on doctors who perform abortions. Many people find that very unsettling, and wonder where the legislating will stop, now that the Supreme Court conservatives have thrown the door wide open.
Another CNN analyst writes: “The result in Kansas confirms that Americans simply do not want an extreme anti-abortion movement regulating women’s bodies” (see story here).
At this point it’s useful to remind readers that the pro- and anti-abortion sides see the issue very differently. For right-to-lifers it’s about “saving babies.” But women’s rights advocates view the anti-abortion movement as part of a larger male-dominated effort to control women, force motherhood on them, and push them back into traditional roles — in other words, to take away their personal freedom and dictate their life paths to them. That doesn’t sit well with women voters, especially well-educated suburban women, with whom Republicans have lost ground in recent elections.
Non-conservatives are increasingly alarmed by conservative intrusions into their personal lives. It’s widely assumed they’re coming for contraception, interracial marriage, and same-sex marriage next. As the second CNN analyst wrote, “The right to marry who you love, the right to decide whether and when to have children — there are few decisions more fundamental to one’s life than these.”
Those rights are under attack. And that probably will cost Republicans a GOP-held Senate seat in Ohio, where their nominee J.D. Vance said women should stay in violent marriages “for the sake of the kids” (see story here). He was already trailing in polls, and this will frighten more voters away from him. Flawed GOP candidates in other races also may help preserve and expand the Democrats’ Senate majority (see story here).
And, on a higher plane, also under reactionary attack is the right to choose who will represent us in the White House, Congress, governor’s mansions, and state legislatures. Republicans are looking more like would-be dictators determined to impose their religious beliefs and private values on everyone. (It doesn’t help that their “values” include cheating on their wives, sending their mistresses for abortions, lying and cheating, and lining their pockets by corruption and thievery.) Some people have taken to calling them “the American Taliban.”
Speaking of the White House, President Biden today issued an executive order on abortion. He can’t overturn restrictive state laws, but CNN says this order “helps women travel out of state to receive abortions, ensures health care providers comply with federal law so women aren’t delayed in getting care and advances research and data collection to evaluate the impact that this reproductive health crisis is having on maternal health and other health conditions and outcomes” (read story here). And while Democrats don’t have the votes in Congress now, they’ll replace Roe v. Wade with a federal statute guaranteeing abortion rights in all 50 states if they get the opportunity. (Conversely, Republicans have proposed a federal law banning abortion in all states.)
The outcome in Kansas suggests there’s broad public support for what Democrats want to do with abortion, and there will be public resistance to what Republicans want to do on abortion. But that won’t necessarily slow down Republicans who don’t believe in democracy or compromise, don’t care about public opinion, and have gone to extraordinary lengths to pack courts with ideology-driven judges.
And living in a time when reactionaries gerrymander legislatures, suppress voting rights, fund campaigns with dark money, and openly talk about overruling voter choices, the large turnout and result in Kansas may have limited meaning in real life.