Some pundits may think so. Not me.
Vice-presidential debates don’t affect election outcomes. Voters focus on the presidential candidates. Some have won with nobodies on their tickets. In fact, it’s rare to have two political powerhouses on the same ticket.
Eric Kall, a debate coach at the University of Michigan, wrote in USA Today on Wednesday, October 7, 2020, that he believes last week’s events “greatly increase the odds” the Harris-Pence debate tonight will have “an outsize impact on the election.” That’s because Trump is sliding in the polls and Kall thinks it’s now up to Pence to “stop the bleeding.”
I don’t think Pence can. Nobody cares what he says. Everyone is focused on Trump, and Pence has no influence on Trump. He’s wall art. In the hallway to the bathroom.
Kall also believes voters are more interested in the VP candidates this year because of increased odds of a presidential succession. I think that perception is more of a media construct than anything else. I don’t see any evidence the public is talking about it. Biden, who is widely expected to win the election, doesn’t look like someone at death’s door.
Kall also argues, “Undecided voters want to be confident that it’s still possible to conduct a civil and substantive political debate during such a watershed election.” Really? If the voters he’s thinking of cared a whit about civility, support for Trump would have collapsed long before now.
But more to the point: What undecided voters? Maybe 8% of voters fell in that category a couple weeks ago, before the first debate and Trump’s hospitalization, but people are rapidly making up their minds, and CNN found 90% of that group are deciding for Biden. This explains the huge leap in Biden’s leap in national polls over the last few days, which may be what Kall refers to as “bleeding.” Maybe he thinks Pence can salvage those votes. But it’s probably too late.
In handicapping the debate, after acknowledging Pence’s past debate performances were “inconsistent,” Kall emphasizes his strengths and Harris’ weaknesses, almost as if he wants Pence to win the debate and is trying to talk himself into believing he will win the debate. That’s not analysis, it’s cheerleading, but if you wish to read Kall’s cheerleading, you can find it here.
I don’t think it matters who “wins” the debate, in point-scoring terms. Only whether it helps or hurts the party tickets with voters. In that respect, I don’t think the VP debate will move the needle. Probably both will make an acceptable impression. Most people will tune in to watch a future presidential contender. I’m not referring to Pence.
The only question I have in my mind is whether Pence will drag his debate coach, moral support, and handholder onstage (see New Yorker cartoon below). With no masks, of course.
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