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Poll Analysis: The race stabilizes

by Darryl — HorsesAss

 

Clinton
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes
Mean of 200 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The analysis on Monday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with a greater than 99.9% probability of winning an election held now, and with a mean electoral vote of 338 for Clinton to 200 for Trump.

We’ve gotten about 49 new polls since then. A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections has Clinton winning all 100,000 times. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning. Clinton received (on average) 338 to Trump’s 200 electoral votes.

In other words, even with plenty of new polls, the race has stabalized.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 20 Oct 2015 to 20 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):

  • 333 electoral votes with a 7.05% probability
  • 334 electoral votes with a 6.82% probability
  • 351 electoral votes with a 4.16% probability
  • 340 electoral votes with a 3.92% probability
  • 352 electoral votes with a 3.40% probability
  • 339 electoral votes with a 3.35% probability
  • 341 electoral votes with a 2.72% probability
  • 323 electoral votes with a 2.53% probability
  • 328 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 2.27% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Clinton wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.01%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 338.5 (17.3)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 199.5 (17.3)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 337 (304, 376)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 201 (162, 234)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

THRESHOLD SAFE + STRONG + LEANS + WEAK
Safe Clinton 208
Strong Clinton 93 301
Leans Clinton 32 32 333
Weak Clinton 0 0 0 333
Weak Trump 1 1 1 205
Leans Trump 45 45 204
Strong Trump 124 159
Safe Trump 35

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

1 0 EC # TOTAL % % CLINTON TRUMP
2 8 VOTES POLLS VOTES CLINTON TRUMP % WINS % WINS
AL 9 1* 2400 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
AK 3 2 795 46.8 53.2 10.6 89.4
AZ 11 6 2859 51.1 48.9 79.2 20.8
AR 6 2* 1256 36.4 63.6 0.0 100.0
CA 55 1 628 65.0 35.0 100.0 0.0
CO 9 4 2280 52.7 47.3 96.5 3.5
CT 7 1* 847 58.8 41.2 100.0 0.0
DE 3 1* 618 62.9 37.1 100.0 0.0
DC 3 1* 1131 76.5 23.5 100.0 0.0
FL 29 7 4007 51.6 48.4 92.9 7.1
GA 16 2 1818 47.4 52.6 5.1 94.9
HI 4 1* 801 61.9 38.1 100.0 0.0
ID 4 1 425 42.8 57.2 1.8 98.2
IL 20 1 700 65.4 34.6 100.0 0.0
IN 11 2 832 47.2 52.8 12.8 87.2
IA 6 1 526 47.5 52.5 21.3 78.8
KS 6 1 484 43.2 56.8 1.8 98.2
KY 8 1* 425 42.4 57.6 1.7 98.3
LA 8 1 664 45.8 54.2 5.8 94.2
ME 2 1 714 54.9 45.1 96.6 3.4
ME1 1 1 379 60.2 39.8 99.9 0.1
ME2 1 1 336 49.1 50.9 40.5 59.5
MD 10 2* 1062 70.0 30.0 100.0 0.0
MA 11 1 412 65.8 34.2 100.0 0.0
MI 16 4 3069 56.9 43.1 100.0 0.0
MN 10 3* 1824 52.2 47.8 90.4 9.6
MS 6 1* 987 42.9 57.1 0.1 99.9
MO 10 3 2801 46.8 53.2 0.9 99.1
MT 3 1 822 43.9 56.1 0.6 99.4
NE 2 1* 594 34.5 65.5 0.0 100.0
NE1 1 1* 191 35.6 64.4 0.2 99.8
NE2 1 1* 207 44.9 55.1 14.7 85.3
NE3 1 1* 199 23.6 76.4 0.0 100.0
NV 6 6 3834 51.1 48.9 83.4 16.6
NH 4 6 3033 54.7 45.3 100.0 0.0
NJ 14 1 527 56.0 44.0 97.3 2.7
NM 5 1 466 58.6 41.4 99.7 0.3
NY 29 1 513 64.3 35.7 100.0 0.0
NC 15 10 5850 51.1 48.9 87.7 12.3
ND 3 1* 300 42.7 57.3 3.7 96.3
OH 18 8 4577 49.6 50.4 34.9 65.1
OK 7 1* 445 41.1 58.9 0.4 99.6
OR 7 5 3077 55.4 44.6 100.0 0.0
PA 20 8 4685 54.2 45.8 100.0 0.0
RI 4 1 504 61.9 38.1 100.0 0.0
SC 9 2* 1509 42.9 57.1 0.0 100.0
SD 3 1* 657 40.9 59.1 0.1 99.9
TN 11 1 415 43.1 56.9 2.4 97.6
TX 38 3 2010 47.3 52.7 4.3 95.7
UT 6 4 1251 47.7 52.3 13.5 86.5
VT 3 1 402 72.6 27.4 100.0 0.0
VA 13 5 2849 56.2 43.8 100.0 0.0
WA 12 1 415 60.2 39.8 99.9 0.1
WV 5 1* 440 31.8 68.2 0.0 100.0
WI 10 5 3082 54.1 45.9 100.0 0.0
WY 3 1* 293 25.9 74.1 0.0 100.0

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found fromthis page.

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Posted 20 Oct 2016 by theaveeditor in Misc.

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