Darryl Holman at HorsesAss offers an ongoing analysis of the presidential polls. This graphic summarizes where things stand now. Obama is well in the lead in the electoral college because there are NO large sates that are deep red. Even at the reddish/blueish line, the Republicans only lead in Texas among large states.
Why is it then that the national polls show such a close race? I do not know but my guess is that Romney’s percentages within the red states are higher than Obama’s in the blue states. In the electoral system, those percentages, that it the national vote, do not matter.
If Obama wins in the electoral college but Romney has a clear win, even by a percent, in the national poll, Obama’s ability to govern will be hurt.