Back in July, after the primary, I queried (here), “Can he break through the 45% barrier?”
I didn’t know, but a couple of clues suggested no. He’d have no coattails, because Trump drags down GOP candidates in this state. Trump got 36.83% against Hillary Clinton in 2016, 38.77% against Biden in 2020, and so far has 39.1% in 2024, although that likely will decline as more votes are counted in Seattle, where he’s barely over 20%.
Also, the Seattle Times endorsed his opponent, Bob Ferguson, after Reichert angered their editorial board by being two-faced about whether he’d vote for Trump, telling them one thing and a private GOP group something else.
Back in July I wrote that based on name recognition, and plausibility as a former congressman, Reichert should get around 45%-46%; but hampered by Trump, the Times rejection, and abortion issue, he’d struggle to reach 44%, and it appears I was right. As of Election Night, he’s at 43.53%.
All in all, it’s a miserable showing, and a humiliating end to Reichert’s political career, considering that Loren Culp, a political novice and gadfly, got 43.12% in 2020; and Reichert and is only 1.5% above the 42% rough baseline of the Republican vote in Washington statewide contests. By that I mean a cocker spaniel could get 42% by wearing a red collar.
Only one GOP candidate in this cycle broke through the 44% barrier. That’s Jaime Herrera-Beutler, who’s at 46.79% on Election Night, though her percentage in King County, which includes Seattle, is much less at 32%; and as more Seattle votes are counted, that figure could decline; but I think she’ll be above 44% and probably above 45%.
Herrera-Beutler had a couple of advantages. She’d been in Congress, so was known throughout the state, and she voted for impeaching Trump for the Jan. 6 insurrection, which made her more acceptable to Washington’s liberal-leaning voters. Also, she didn’t have to run against an incumbent.
There’s a lesson here for Washington Republicans: Don’t tie yourselves to Trump. Accept abortion rights; they’re in our state constitution. Don’t lie to editorial boards. And carve your own path, instead of yoking yourself to the national GOP, who are toxic in this state.