12 PLUS 1 ….. PLACES BERNIE’s BRIGADE MIGHT DO SOME GOOD
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BEST HOPE FOR THE BERNIE BRIGADE The open seat in New York’s 19th District has attracted the attention of one-time New York gubernatorial candidate Zephyr Teachout, who’s now facing Republican John Faso in this Hudson Valley face-off. Teachout is a committed anti-corruption warrior who takes a hard line on money in politics (she’s against it). Naturally, she earned the endorsement of Bernie Sanders (as well as a halfhearted nod from her former enemy, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo). Bernie fans, take note: should Teachout entrench herself in the 19th, she will eventually become a Democratic superdelegate! |
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REDISTRICTING CAN WORK AGAINST THE GOP TOO In Colorado’s 6th District, incumbent Republican Mike Coffman is facing what the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman calls “the race of Coffman’s career.” Why so complicated? Seems that Coffman’s district, which was once red enough to send Tom Tancredo to the House, has been more recently gerrymandered into a more bluish hue — opening an opportunity for Democrat Morgan Carroll. Need another complicating factor? Well, there’s Donald Trump, who Coffman does not like and who he’s criticized in ads. |
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IT’S A JUNGLE OUT THERE It’s all jungle primaries in the Golden State now, so the 17th District will feature an incumbent Democrat (Mike Honda) versus a Democratic challenger (Ro Khanna). Khanna isn’t much of a candidate — his basic platform is a vacant plan to cater to the already over-served Silicon Valley set. But Honda is dogged by a serious ethics scandal, so the seat is ripe for the plucking. |
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CAN WE GET A DO-OVER? Democratic Representative Steve Israel’s decision to retire created possibilities for the Republican Party in what’s been a fairly safe blue district — New York’s 3rd. But whatever hopes the GOP had for a sneak pick-up may have been scotched due to some primary season dramatics that saw Jack Martins challenging the validity of his fellow Republican Phillip Pidot’s petition signatures. Pidot got kicked off the ballot, leaving Martin to win the primary unopposed. However, a subsequent court ruling basically reversed the original challenge, so now Pidot and Martins have to do the primary all over again on Oct. 6. |
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HIGH ROLLING IN LAS VEGAS Nevada’s 3rd District is a match-up between Republican Danny Tarkanian — the son of legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian — and Democrat Jacky Rosen. Tarkanian is on his fifth attempt to make a political career happen. Rosen comes hand-picked by Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. As such, this has become one of the most expensive races in the country. President Barack Obama barely carried the district in 2012, so this will be one to watch on turnout. |
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THE REMATCH Over in Florida’s 26th District, we have another race with big money and big animosities. It’s a battle between Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo and Democrat Joe Garcia, and if that sounds familiar, that’s because this is a rematch of their 2014 battle, in which Curbelo took Garcia’s seat amid a scandal that involved Garcia’s former chief of staff. So far the only major thing these two agree on is that they need to fight Zika, so at least there’s that. |
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VULNERABLE OR NAH? Iowa Republican Rod Blum — who’s probably best known for wishing a “recession” upon Washington, D.C., because local developers have had the gall to actually try to build things — is constantly cited as the GOP’s “most vulnerable” legislator in the House. Democrats have placed their hopes in the hands of former Cedar Rapids councilwoman Monica Vernon. Only…maybe that whole “Blum is the most vulnerable legislator” thing has been a tad overblown? The first poll of the race found Blum sitting on a comfortable 7-point lead. All you political prognosticators may want to check to see if your prediction machines have been properly calibrated. |
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CHARLIE CRIST STILL TRYING TO MAKE CHARLIE CRIST HAPPEN Charlie Crist has been many things in his career: Republican, Independent, Democrat, Attorney General, Governor, would-be senator, would-be governor, personal-injury lawyer, supporter of both John McCain and Barack Obama, lover of fans…the list goes on. And now, he hopes to add “U.S. Representative from Florida’s 13th District” to it. If he wants to get his wayward political career back on track, he’ll have to beat incumbent Republican David Jolly — the man who recently brought a jar of mosquitoes to the floor of the House in protest of that body’s inaction on the Zika virus. |
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GRAND BATTLE IN THE GRANITE STATE If you’re a fan of political races where the same two people essentially run against each other over and over again, forever, then you’ll want to feast your eyes on New Hampshire’s 1st District, where Carol Shea-Porter may end up running against the man who ousted her in 2014, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. The two have basically traded the seat back and forth since 2010. Should Guinta win the GOP primary on Sept. 13 — and that’s an open question — they’ll get to do this again. Based on trends, it’s Shea-Porter’s “turn” to hold the seat, and then she’ll lose to Guinta again in 2018, and so on and so forth, until the two politicians finally realize that they’ve actually been in hell all this time. |
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WAVE-WATCHER BELLWETHER The GOP’s success in the 2014 midterms allowed Barbara Comstock to retain Representative Frank Wolf’s seat in Virginia’s 10th District for the GOP, despite trends that have found Virginia becoming more favorable territory for Democrats. But Northern Virginia remains precarious territory for the GOP, and her race will be one to watch on Election Night. If, when polls close on the East Coast, she ends up in a too-close-to-call contest with her Democratic opponent — real estate developer LuAnn Bennett — it could be a sign that an anti-Trump wave is on. And if she loses soon after the polls close? That wave could be a tsunami. |
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HOW THE MIGHTY MIGHT FALL Republican Scott Garrett has represented New Jersey’s 5th District since 2003 and has never failed to win by double digits. As a veteran legislator, he’s risen to become the chair of the powerful House Financial Services Subcommittee. And he could very well lose. Why? Well, as Politico reported back in July, Garrett told his Republican colleagues that he doesn’t pay his National Republican Congressional Committee dues because the NRCC “actively [recruits] gay candidates” to run for office. As Politico reported, this disclosure made “some lawmakers…noticeably angry” (and at least one irate enough to leak it to Politico). Democrats are now bullish about their candidate — former Clinton speechwriter and Microsoft exec Josh Gotthemier. |
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HOW THE MIGHTY MIGHT STRUGGLE It’s weird to think about California’s 49th District being part of a list like this. After all, Republican Darrell Issa has had a hammerlock on that seat since 2003, after two years spent repping the 48th. But Democrats are oddly hopeful that they can prise this seat from Issa’s grasp: this week, the DCCC added Issa’s opponent, retired Marine Corps Colonel and Iraq War veteran Douglas Applegate, to their “Red To Blue” program — which means that the Democratic Party will be throwing a lot of good money after these high hopes. He’ll need that cash, too — one of Issa’s key advantages is that he is one of the wealthiest men to ever sit in the House. |
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PLUS ONE .. WA STATE OK … he is not favored to win, but Joe Pakootas in Spokane’s 5th CD is a helluva cndidate running against a Luddite, gOP Trumoie Kathy McMorris Rogers. Rogers is the highest ranking femme in the Republican leadership and second only to Senator Joni Ernst in bragging about her own illiteracy. When asked about her endorsement of Donald Trump,McMorris Rogers shies away. When confronted with specifics on Trump’s despicable actions, she doesn’t say one word . Shge is what Clinton cals a “deplorable.” Born into the Colville ingenious people, Joe came up from poverty, graduating from high school and taking a job with the laborers union to support his family. Eventually, he was elected, and served 16 years as a Council member of his Tribe, five of those years as Chair. As Chair he pulled the Colvilles out of bankruptcy, getting several business going. Compared to Trump and his Trumpie fan, Joe really made jobs! His polling makes this look like more than just a hope. He is about 5 points behind, a record in the previously solid red CD. The DNCC won’t do anything ..too risky. Joe needs cash. Even of he were to lose , the impact of building on this promising guy should be obvious! WHERE IS BERNIE? |