Trump’s 2024 campaign advisers want him to run on the economy. Good luck with that. He’d rather talk about his personal grievances.
But let’s say he does. Bill Clinton, speaking to the 2024 Democratic convention, claimed that since 1989 fifty-one million jobs have been created under Democratic presidents and one million under Republican presidents, adding he “triple-checked it.” Is this true?
Not quite, according to Politico, which did a fact check (here). Their total is 50.6 million jobs, of which 49 million were during Democratic administrations. But this is cherry-picking to some extent, because it excludes the Reagan job growth, and the two GOP presidents since 1989 have the worst job-creating records since data has been collected beginning with Eisenhower.
If you start with Eisenhower, it’s 107.7 million jobs, with roughly 70% under Democrats and 30% under Republicans. That looks somewhat better for Republicans, but still is a big disparity, so a question is whether policy differences affect job creation.
Of course they do, and Democratic spending has more impact on job creation than Republican tax cuts, never mind the bogus “trickle down” arguments. But Politico says other factors, including luck and events beyond a president’s control, also play a role.
And even when it’s due to policy choices, it’s murky, because Republican Congresses have contributed to job creation under Democratic presidents and vice-versa. Also, a previous administration’s policies can still be creating jobs into the new one; for example, Biden’s infrastructure bill will still generate jobs after he leaves office.
Trump’s jobs record was hurt by the Covid pandemic, although arguably his response made it worse. The Democratic penchant for deficit spending is good for job creation, but has other costs for the economy; there’s no free lunch in economics.
When Bill Clinton ran for president in 1992, his campaign manager said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” When he told the 2024 Democratic delegates, and watching nation, that Democrats are responsible for nearly all the jobs created since the beginning of his own presidency, it was statistically true but campaign puffery. But isn’t that what political speakers do at party conventions?
Related article: Politico fact-checks 2024 Democratic convention speeches here.