The DA charged Trump with election crimes. If he didn’t make hush money payoffs to influence an election, falsifying business records to hide those payments would be misdemeanors under New York law. Let’s start by quoting what Trump said after his arraignment:
“Former President Donald Trump said he ‘never thought anything like this could happen in America’ Tuesday night after he was arraigned in New York City. ‘The only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it,’ Trump said from his Mar-A-Lago property in Florida. He mentioned the 2020 presidential election, current President Joe Biden and claimed ‘our country is going to hell’ to which the audience applauded.”
(See story here.) This is obviously a political speech to rally his supporters (and bring in donations to his 2024 campaign). Other comments: (1) Criminals are always surprised to get caught. (2) “Destroying our country” is the customary lingo he uses to demonize Democrats and is partisan hyperbole. (3) As for his remark that “the only crime that I have committed is [blah-blah],” you don’t expect him to admit he’s guilty, do you? People accused of crimes always insist they’re innocent, and everybody in the jailhouse claims they were framed by a corrupt legal system.
Of course, at this stage Trump is entitled to a legal presumption of innocence. People can (and will) express their opinions about his guilt or innocence, but that’s up to a jury. And Pelosi got it wrong when she suggested he has to prove his innocence; prosecutors have to prove his guilt. (How did she get that backwards?)
Most people probably agree falsifying business records is wrong, but many think it’s not a serious crime, and even more will feel that paying off mistresses is an offense against his wife but not society. The public would be less sympathetic if he deducted those payments from his taxes as business expenses, but apparently the scheme was exposed before he could do so (see below), which makes that less of a big deal; however, it still could make getting a conviction easier (see story here).
A key prosecution argument is that “the timing of the payments [and] meetings related to the payments … appear to show that the purpose was campaign-related and not for Trump’s personal reasons.” (See story here.) But accusing Trump of campaign law violations won’t impress Republicans, because they don’t take campaign laws seriously.
CNN notes making felony charges stick requires that prosecutors prove “Trump and his team falsified records with the intent of committing another crime,” and CNN‘s legal analyst “highlighted how the DA’s office did not say what that alleged second crime is, an issue the defense lawyers rightly complained about because the purpose of an indictment is to serve notice to the defendant on what they’re being charged with.”
CNN says the DA has been vague about that; if so, this is problematical, because Trump must be informed of the basis of charges against him. But that’s a matter of interpretation; the DA wasn’t silent on the subject. He said Trump conspired “to promote a candidacy by unlawful means” that included false statements “planned to be made to tax authorities” and “also mentioned a violation of a federal election law cap on contribution limits.” But he made these comments in a press conference, not in court, so does that count?
CNN summarized, “In a first-of-its-kind criminal indictment against [a former president], Manhattan prosecutors are accusing Trump of falsifying business records with the intent to conceal illegal conduct connected to his 2016 presidential campaign.” (Se story here). The prosecutors characterized his payment of hush money (which isn’t illegal), and falsifying business records to hide those payments (which is only a misdemeanor), as an unlawful scheme to influence an election (which elevates the misdemeanor to a low-level felony).
Republicans once again are closing ranks behind a profoundly immoral man who cheats in business, is a prolific liar, a serial adulterer, a draft dodger who disparaged D-Day casualties as “suckers,” and a racist and homophobe. This isn’t a good look for their party, or them. Why do they do it? For starters. I think they lack a moral compass themselves, but they’re also motivated by practical political considerations; they can’t get elected by turning against Trump, who commands the loyalty of a large chunk of the GOP voter base.
What about that base? Contrary to popular stereotypes, most aren’t not low-education trailer park losers. Many are upper-middle class people who own farms or businesses, have comfortable lives, and go to a church. For some, it’s driven by policy preferences (abortion, guns, etc.), but Trump also appeals to those who feel uneasy about changing demographics and culture. He speaks the language of privileged whites who don’t want to be knocked off their perch.
That’s why you see GOP p0liticians attacking affirmative action, diversity programs, the teaching of America’s troubled racial history, and immigration. All of these things have “black” and “brown” stamped on them, and MAGA Republicans feel threatened by that improves the status of minorities. Underlying that is a broader frustration at being in a political minority; as polls consistently show (see, e.g., example here), only about a third of Americans are unquestioningly loyal to Trump.
That loyalty counts more to them than vague concepts about rule of law; all they see is a Democratic DA going after their leader. The fact a prosecutor can charge, but can’t convict — only a jury of citizens can — is too subtle for them. Our system is full of protections against arbitrary prosecution for defendants, and Trump should embrace it; instead he’s badmouthing it, and his followers take their cues from that.
Pundits agree these charges are the least serious Trump potentially faces. Even legal experts think the New York felony charges are shaky. If he’s convicted at all in this case, it’s more likely to be on misdemeanors than felony counts; and in any case the odds are stacked against him doing prison time on these charges. The other pending investigations by the Georgia DA and federal special prosecutor pose greater legal threats to Trump. But on those, we’ll have to wait and see.
Related: Read the 16-page indictment here.