A progressive push to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour was stripped from the Covid-19 relief package by a ruling of the Senate parliamentarian on Thursday, February 25, 2012 (read story here). That means any minimum wage increase must be a separate bill, and either needs GOP support to survive a Senate filibuster, or Democrats would have to ditch the filibuster to pass it.
What to do now?
That’s a tough question. In his inaugural speech, Biden promised to seek “unity” and try to work with Republicans. In a democracy, when politics function normally, the political process is all about compromise.
But America’s politics aren’t functioning normally. For over a decade now, the GOP’s record has been one of obstruction, refusal to negotiate, and stonewalling; and the Democrats almost certainly will have to abolish the filibuster anyway to pass their other major legislative priorities.
The is they don’t have the votes right now to abolish the filibuster. They may never have. At least a couple of their own senators are reluctant to go take route. A more immediate problem for minimum wage advocates is that, even with the filibuster gone, they wouldn’t have the votes for a $15 wage. Two of their own will only support an $11 minimum wage.
What’s on the table is a proposal by two Republican senators. They’re offering $10 with increases indexed to inflation, but with strings attached that Democrats don’t like. Strings aside, the difference between $10 and $11 might not seem like much, but matters to workers living on the fringe of poverty.
States have been raising their own minimum wages, but currently only 20 states plus D.C. are above $10 (see list here), so accepting the GOP proposal would increase wages for the lowest-paid workers in 30 states and Puerto Rico. That makes it worth doing, especially if the Democrats can get an agreement to eliminate the so-called “tipped wage,” currently $2.13 an hour. This provision allows employers to pay less than the mandated minimum wage if tips make up the difference. The net effect is the first $5.12 an hour of tips go to the employer, not the employee.
It’s not clear that even the GOP proposal would get the 10 GOP votes necessary to clear the filibuster hurdle. If not, the Democrats face a quandary: Unless all 50 Democrats get behind ending the filibuster, not only will the federal minimum wage will stay at $7.25, but Republicans will effectively control the Senate in all but budget matters, and none of Biden’s other legislative agenda will be enacted.
It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out.