Some of them, sure. But on the whole, probably not. Back in 2016, nearly two-thirds of America’s voters thought Trump was unqualified, untrustworthy, and lacked the temperament to be president, although a significant number of those who felt that way voted for him anyway (and some probably will again).
Even so, he lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes, and eked out an electoral-vote win only because his opponent was equally unpopular and made crucial campaign mistakes.
Going into the 2020 election, now less than 16 weeks away, Trump hasn’t risen in public esteem. Polls show 7 of 10 Americans think our country is on the wrong track, 6 in 10 disapprove of his job performance, and the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Biden — despite his inability to campaign — with a 15% lead nationally, while many other polls show him with a double-digit lead. In addition, most polls show Biden leading in all 6 states identified as key swing states. This is before any debates.
Nevertheless, Democrats are nervous, fearing Trump has some magic trick up his sleeve. Democratic insiders describe their party’s grassroots loyalists as “snakebit” and suffering from “political PTSD.” Democratic strategists actually like it that way, hoping fear of Trump being re-elected will drive turnout, which lagged in 2016. In that respect, Trump is their best asset; and he can be counted out to continue being loathsome.
In these polls, I see across America a common-sense reaction to Trump’s failings of character, behavior, and leadership. Most people know our country needs something better, although some remain wary of what Democrats might do. But Trump’s efforts to label Biden as “Sleepy Joe” may backfire, because it reinforces the theme of Biden being a calming force in our national politics, which is what most voters hunger for now, whereas the 2016 election was driven by a desire for change after years of sluggish economy recovery.
Trump, by comparison, comes across as shrill, frustrated, and out of control. He clearly isn’t in control of the coronavirus or economic crises, which may be his ultimate undoing. Four years ago, many people saw in him a successful businessman they thought could revitalize growth, but bluster and salesmanship gets you only so far. Now people are scared, and all they see is a flailing president unable to deal with a real crisis.
Trump’s campaign is floundering, too. His first major campaign event, at Tulsa on June 20, was a bust. On July 16, he replaced his campaign manager, bitterly criticizing him. Such personnel upheaval so close to an election is usually indicative of a campaign in trouble and a candidate deeply worried about his election prospects.
Despite that, many Democrats are worried that Trump will somehow pull it off. But most political experts thinks that’s wrong, he is no magician, and there’s nothing behind the curtain. Read their rationale here.
When all’s said and done, only one poll will count, and that’s the one on November 3, 2020. Until then, we really don’t know how this will play out. America is under great stress right now. But my gut instinct is that the vast majority of America’s voters are neither stupid nor crazy, and all it will take to defeat Trump is an opponent who can reassure them that eventually things will be okay. And soft-speaking Biden increasingly seems like that person.
In 2016 it was the candidate the Democrats had running. In 2020 it will come down to the same thing. This time Trump is the incumbent. 2020 has turned totally weird. Earlier in the year the election was Trump’s to lose. Now with corvid and it crashing the economy what will happen is anyone’s guess. Americans love incumbents these days. I like a sure thing betting when I can get it and I will bet a dollar or more on every incumbent running in the 2020 election at the Federal level. While it is weird I am fairly certain American voters won’t turn the old bums out, but will keep them in no matter which party they are with.
If the election were today maybe Biden would win, but it is not today. Toward the end of summer both major parties will hold conventions and Americans begin to pay attention. Then there probably will be a Presidential debate. Which won’t move many voters of either party, but may persuade some of the actual majority of voters.
Americans may realize that when it comes to infectious diseases (as with the flu) the President does not have all that power and few levers to fight the virus. Trump has pulled most of those levers, and he may actually be right about getting the kids back in school. Most Americans don’t even know of the profound oil war that has been happening.
In 1972 the silent majority showed up for Nixon. Seems some of the issues from that past election are back. The once and future voter may appear.
Trump has not done a particularly bad job as President. Of course he lost the house the second two years, but that seems to be a modern day theme of modern day Presidents and not much has gotten done.
Hong Kong, China and India, trade with China Waway are all going to be part of this election. Overall I don’t think any of this helps Biden. And if the Chinese are too blatant that they want Trump out that alone may just keep Trump in office. We may not want war with China, but such a conflict maybe necessary and unavoidable. While the British probably won’t sail a carrier group into Hong Kong harbor they just might, or take a big chunk of China’s navy out. Yes the British did not become an empire by being nice. Polite yes, but not nice. I think we should support a free Hong Kong and a free Taiwan, and I don’t think Joe is the man for either.
I don’t think the Democrats have gone with a particularly good candidate. Understandable the first rate candidates didn’t make themselves available in an election the incumbent should win. They will run in 2024 even if Biden wins.
Neither candidate are able to do those normal things that are a part of a Presidential campaign. Maybe a whistle stop campaign would work. I don’t think Americans will want a return to the 1870s and to 1890s with front porch campaigns with others speaking for the candidates. It is not at all out of the ordinary at this point in Presidential politics the challenger is up in the polls. Two modern Presidents failed to secure a second term. One was Carter and the other was the senior Bush. Biden is not Reagan, nor is he Clinton. Or did Carter and Bush actions decide those elections more than the individuals being run by the other party. Ie any Republican would have beat Carter and any Democrat would have beat Bush. S all the pols and ink spilled and tv prognostics ect are more about the press creating a horse race and selling ads and making money. All this and one of these two poor bastards are going to be President in 2021.
It’s true some voters are delusional, but I doubt there’s enough of them to overcome a double-digit polling gap. Trump needs a major break. Maybe he hopes the stock market will save him.