In 2008, Nate Silver called 49 states correctly; in 2012, he got all 50 states right. It’s still too early for polls to be very reliable, but this is how 2016 looks to him right now: Clinton 353, Trump 183, Johnson 1, with 270 needed to win. In the popular vote, Clinton has 48%, Trump 41%, and Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, gets 9%.
