Nate Silver’s 538 Blog at the NY Times has a great statistical analysis of the current Republican contest … the summary of the data is bizarre“Mr. Gingrich , Mr. Romney and Mr. Cain may now be in a rough three-way tie for the Republican polling lead.” Everyone else is dead or undetectable.
I think this from Nate’s pieces says Nate is missing something. Romney is in real trouble. He has lost his outliers!
During early October Romney’s modest numbers benefited a few outlier polls giving him as much as 40 to 45% of the vote. That now seems to have vanished.
In other words, even though other candidates have fallen, Romney has LOST support to what might best be called an “anything but Mitt” majority of the GOP. If I am correct, then my hand drawn (cloudy gold) trend line to the left may be very bad news for Romney and good news to whoever has the resources to take the lead.
Nick suggests that Newt Gingrich has a chance.
I do not think Newt Gingrich fits the bill. Newt has gotten away with a lot so far this year … running as if he wants to be available when the Romney’ Robot runs out of positrons. The Republican party needs someone to run but needs the Tea Party to win. Gingrich, with his failed baptist, philandering hubby, Catholic opus dei farce of a personal life would need the support of the whole Penn State Athletic Department to sell his personal life to the moralists of the Tea Party.
Can Romney sell himself to the tea baggers?