I suspect the very subtle foreign policy hand of Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama may be pulling off another miracle.
The Emirates airline placed a blockbuster order for 50 $18 billion in Boeing 777s at the Dubai Air Show last Sunday, despite growing fears of stalling global growth. This deal adds to the evolution of the UAE as the outpost of American influence in the middle east. A role oddly parallel to the role Israel plays.
That contorted analogy may be worth a second thought. The same week the Pentagon announced that they are likely to sell the UAE Joint Direct Attack Munitions made by Boeing. Those included the sale of “bunker-buster” bombs and air-to-surface missiles about which the US Congress was notified in September.
Nothing new? The UAE airforce also played a major role in operations over Libya! This is NOT an ordinary Arab princeling’s toy. The UAEF has 80 F-16E/F Block 60 “Desert Falcons” and approximately 60 upgraded Mirage 2000-9. The air force is largely American trained and .. astonishingly .. now includes female UAE pilots! The F16 is the state of the art fighter bomber in the middle east and can be equipped for long flights with auxiliary fuel tanks …. or just refueled by American tankers patrolling the Indian Ocean.
Finally, the UAE has covert relations with Israel, including a contract for satellite surveillance services.
Put all this together …. the UAE is totally dependent on the world economy and on US support for the Arab Sunni business class.
Iran’s form of Islamic Republic with its support for radical Islam is a threat to all that holds the UAE together. Israel is not.
I have never understood the talk about an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In order for Israel to strike Iran, the Israelis would need to refuel in the air, presumably over some Arab country that would then have a LOT of explaining to do. In other words, even if Israel did strike, the effect would be a one time effort and Iran would be free to rebuild.
BUT ..a UAE strike, with covert Israeli support and America “leading from behind” is very easy to imagine. This would not be a one time affair. It would mean that the UAE, acting as a surrogate for the more conservative Saudis and with support from the US, Europe and Israel. would emerge as a new counterbalance to Iran.