Not so good. He’s polling about half as well in Iowa and New Hampshire as his dad did in 2012. And while Ron’s numbers were climbing at this point of the campaign, Rand’s are declining. On its very first day, Rand Paul’s first presidential bid already looks like an ICU patient whose life is fading away.
Writing for Nate Silver’s Five-Thirty-Eight blog, political journalist Harry Enten points out that Rand has an identity problem, which stems from his notorious flip-flopping especially on foreign relations. 
Realizing that an isolationist is unelectable, he has drastically changed his tune on an array of foreign policy and military issues. As a result libertarians no longer trust him, while at the same time the “new” Rand Paul is a tough sell to the GOP establishment. He’s is at risk of coming across as a crass opportunist who will say and do anything to become president. Some people are already hanging the “glibertarian” label on him, and it’s likely to stick.
Still, Rand Paul has star power, and probably will be one of the finishers, but has little chance of becoming the nominee. While he isn’t hated within his own party the way Ted Cruz is, as Enten says it’s “very difficult to win a party’s nomination when party officials don’t like you.” And if he does, he’s far too conservative to stand a chance in November.
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