In the past several days, three new polls have been released that weigh in on the Washington state gubernatorial race. In all three polls, former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) leads state AG Rob McKenna (R) by narrow margins—always within the margin of error. […] We can jointly analyze the three polls together. Our “meta-poll” has a total of 2,119 “voters” of which 2,025 offered a preference for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee took 1035 (48.8%) of these votes, and McKenna took 991 (46.8%) votes. There were 93 (4.4%) undecideds.The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee wins 751,986 times, and McKenna wins 243,119 times, suggesting that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 75.6% probability and McKenna would win with a 24.4% probability:
[Read more… ]