That’s a squishy question for which there’s no clearcut answer.
So let’s do a comparative analysis: Jimmy Carter won the 1976 election by more votes than Trump won the 2024 election, with far more people voting in 2024. Here are the numbers:
1976, Carter vs. Ford: There were 79,980,515 total votes. Carter got 40,831,881 votes, while Ford got 39,148,634 votes. Carter got 1,683,247 more votes.
2024, Trump vs. Harris: By latest count, there were 151,125,950 total votes. Trump got 76,817,763 votes, while Harris got 74,308,187 votes. Trump got 1,509,576 more votes. (Note, these figures may not be final.)
It’s the Electoral College, not the popular vote, that elects presidents. But a president’s power ultimately derives from his popular support, and a president who wins by a large popular vote margin generally has more “political capital” than one who eked into office.
So, it’s not clear how much the popular vote margin matters, but it probably does matter in some indefinable way. At a minimum, political pundits will have fun with the Carter-Trump comparison. Trump is less popular than (the supposedly unpopular) Jimmy Carter? Yah, sure, you betcha! That much is indisputable.
One final comment: Trump’s popular mandate is to lower the price of gas and eggs, and make housing more affordable. The rest of what he has on his agenda could get his party in trouble come the 2026 midterm elections. That’s just how politics and political popularity work.
