Trump’s re-election delivered a shock to Democrats and liberals, but all is not lost.
First, however, a couple of preliminary observations. The pollsters were right; the White House race was a 50-50 tie. It really was close; Trump got 50% to 51% in all the battleground states. It was soooo close, which suggests national support for Republicans and their agenda isn’t deeply embedded in the electorate.
Pollsters said all along the economy was the top issue for voters, and that seems to be true. The Democrats have lost the working class, and this made the difference. This is evident from the collapse of the Rust Belt “blue wall,” where Trump (by narrow margins) won nearly every state.
I believe this has been years in the making, has happened primarily because the Democrats embraced globalization that sent blue-collar jobs overseas, and these voters went to Trump because he embraced protectionism, which promises to bring those jobs back home.
But working-class allegiance to Trump and the GOP isn’t firm, given the GOP’s anti-union stance and anti-worker policies, so Democrats could get these voters back with the right policies and messaging in future campaigns. They should make that a priority.
Now for the silver linings:
- Republicans were held to modest Senate gains, apparently picking up 3 seats, for a 52-48 Senate. McConnell says they will retain the filibuster, giving the Democrats the power to veto a national abortion ban and any other extreme legislation coming out of the House. It’s also possible the Democrats could emerge from this election with House control. These factors, combined, can put a brake on the policies Democrats fear most.
- The electoral map in both House and Senate will be more favorable to Democrats in 2026, so even if the GOP holds the House, Trump may have a free legislative hand for only two years, which limits major changes. Also, the closeness of the election may exert a moderating influence on policy.
- There’s a good possibility that Trump’s and Vance’s most extreme rhetoric will not find its way into actual policy. What politicians say to win elections, and what they want to do (and are able to do) in office, are often two different things. For example, RFK Jr. may get a high-level administration job, but the morning after the election he said he won’t take vaccines away from anyone.
- Republicans are just as vulnerable to backlash from overreach as Democrats are. Pursuing extreme policies that anger voters could put Democrats back in control, so Trump and a GOP Congress will have to tread somewhat carefully if they don’t want to damage their 2026 and 2028 prospects.
- Voters punished Trump for his chaotic first administration with a loss in 2020; even though he can’t run again, that also could act as a restraining influence.
- For Democrats and liberals repulsed by Trump on philosophical and personal levels, relief could come fairly soon. Given Trump’s age and health, he might not govern for the full four years of his term. For the same reasons, we can discount him seeking a third term in defiance of the 22nd Amendment.
- The two worst and most corrupt Supreme Court justices may leave the court. There will be pressure from Republicans on Thomas and Alito to retire while it’s possible for Trump to get Senate confirmation for their successors. Trump will appoint young conservative justices who will be on the court a long time, but it’s almost impossible for anyone to be more extreme in judicial philosophy than Thomas and Alito.
- The blue bastions are still blue bastions, and still function as refuges for people who don’t want to live in conservative culture. This election did not weaken the Democratic hold on liberal-minded states like California, Washington, and the Northeast; the Trump phenomenon is geographically confined to the distressed industrial states of the midwest (and, of course, the states that were solidly Republican all along).
- In this respect, the GOP’s federalist philosophy of transferring power from the federal government to the states works to liberals’ advantage compared to national imposition of conservative policies. The most obvious example is abortion rights, which will exist in many states if left up to the states, but would not exist anywhere under a federal abortion ban. The same goes for other major policy questions; blue states will be free to pursue green energy transition, LGBQT rights, and other policies dear to liberals on a state level.
- America hasn’t shifted hard-right; the most extreme Republican candidates in this election lost. Mark Robinson and Michele Morrow, two crazies running for North Carolina governor and schools superintendent respectively, were defeated. So was election denier and MAGA loudmouth Kari Lake in Ohio. In Washington, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R, WA-4), who voted to impeach Trump for the Jan. 6 insurrection, retained his seat in Congress against a farther-right MAGA challenger; and MAGA nutcase Joe Kent failed to unseat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (D, WA-3) in a district that flipped from red to blue two years ago.
Overall, the 2024 election obviously is a blow and disappointment to Democrats. Most disturbing is that a majority of voters have shown themselves willing to discard character as a criterion for selecting leaders, but that didn’t begin with Trump; recall that Bill Clinton, a draft dodger and adulterer, was elected twice. This, too, has been years in the making.
The reason is plain enough. It’s a matter of voter priorities. I think this, too, is rooted in the offshoring of factory jobs; it’s to be expected that people in economically distressed communities in the former industrial belt are looking past candidates’ personal flaws and asking, “What are you going to do for me?” By the barest of pluralities in critical battleground states, their answer to Democrats in this and other elections has been, “Not enough.”
How much role did the Republicans’ exploitation of culture wars play? I’m thinking probably less than it’s tempting to assume. Over three decades ago, James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign manager, famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” It still is. And if Trump carries follows through on his economic promises, that issue may well favor Democrats in future elections, because Trump’s policies will bring higher consumer prices and higher interest rates. In addition, Republican trickle-down tax policies have never delivered benefits for the middle and working classes, and won’t this time either.