Back in July, after the primary, I queried (here), “Can he break through the 45% barrier?”
I didn’t know, but a couple of clues suggested no. He’d have no coattails, because Trump drags down GOP candidates in this state. Trump got 36.83% against Hillary Clinton in 2016, 38.77% against Biden in 2020, and 39.01% against Harris in 2024, dragged down by his 22.3% showing in King County, which includes Seattle.
Also, the Seattle Times endorsed his opponent, Bob Ferguson, after Reichert angered their editorial board by being two-faced about whether he’d vote for Trump, telling them one thing and a private GOP group the opposite.
Back in July I wrote that, based on name recognition and plausibility as a former congressman, Reichert should get around 45%-46%; but hampered by Trump, the Times rejection, and abortion issue, he’d struggle to reach 44%. But he managed that much; 22 days after the election, with 4,000 votes left to be counted, he’s at 44.28%.
All in all, it’s not a great showing, and a disappointing end to Reichert’s political career, but at least he bested Loren Culp, a political novice and gadfly, who got 43.12% in 2020, by more than a full percentage point. It puts Reichert over 2¼% above the 42% rough baseline of the Republican vote in Washington statewide contests, which is better than most GOP candidates do.
By “baseline” I mean voters who vote for an “R” after a name, even if they know nothing about the candidate. In other words, a cocker spaniel could get 42% by wearing a red collar.
Perhaps Reichert did have a bit of tailwind from Trump, who improved 2% over his 2016 showing, although only 0.24% from 2020. There’s anecdotal evidence that swing voters upset by inflation voted for Republicans, while there was apathy on the Democratic side.
In any case, several GOP candidates broke through the 44% barrier in this election. One even surpassed 47%; that was Jaime Herrera-Beutler at 47.15%, an almost magical achievement for a Republican running for a statewide office in Washington.
But Herrera-Beutler had a couple of advantages. She’d been in Congress, so was known across the state, and voted to impeach Trump for the Jan. 6 insurrection, which made her more acceptable to Washington’s liberal-leaning voters. Also, she didn’t have to run against an incumbent.
There’s a lesson here for Washington Republicans: Don’t tie yourselves to Trump. Accept abortion rights; they’re in our state constitution. Don’t lie to editorial boards. And carve your own path, instead of yoking yourself to a national GOP whose policy agendas are toxic in this blue state.