James Carville, 80, Bill Clinton’s former campaign manager, and now an aging political pundit on the Democratic side of things, has been predicting Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.
Nobody knows; polls suggest it could go either way, and Carville admits he “could be wrong.” But let’s skip past all this; I want to go directly to something Carville said that caught my eye: An article in The Hill (here) quoted Carville saying “the Constitution is on the ballot.”
Let’s talk about that. What he’s implying, of course, is Trump will run roughshod over the Constitution if he’s elected again.
The Constitution establishes our basic framework of government. As “the supreme law of the land,” it’s a legal document; but I think of it as a social contract, because it functions as an agreement among those living today on how we govern ourselves. Otherwise, it would just be a historical relic.
Laws and rules aren’t self-enforcing; people won’t obey them just because they’re there. That’s human nature. You can have all the traffic laws you like, but drivers won’t obey them without traffic cops to enforce them.
With the Constitution, though, there’s no real enforcement mechanism. Its vitality mostly depends on our willingness to adhere to it. Until recently, this wasn’t in serious question. Despite occasional media talk of a looming “constitutional crisis,” those in positions of power always went along with the system. Then Trump and his MAGA followers appeared on the political scene, and discarded the established norms of political behavior.
The electoral system established by the Constitution actually favors Republicans, because the Electoral College gives greater weight to votes in less populated, rural, GOP-leaning states. Republicans also have a huge advantage in the Senate, where they won nearly the same number of seats with 40 million fewer votes.
But that stacked deck isn’t enough anymore to satisfy Republicans. They think only they have a right to win elections, regardless of what a majority of voters want. They disparage the electoral process without evidence, and refuse to accept results they don’t like.
In short, they’re rejecting the social contract to settle political disputes at the ballot box, and gravitating toward extra-constitutional means of seizing power. That’s why Carville says the Constitution is on the ballot.
It’s not etched in stone that America’s constitutional system will endure. It has proven itself pretty robust through the passing of many generations, and a constantly changing political landscape, despite our country’s often-tumultuous history; but it can be overthrown.
Strongmen, once they get in power, are hard to dislodge. See, e.g., Venezuela, where the socialist dictator lost a recent election but still holds power. The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on America’s democratic process almost became another example. Once the camel gets into the tent, it’s very difficult to get the camel out of the tent. That’s why the Constitution is on the ballot in 2024.