Tides flow and ebb, and so does America’s political center.
From 1980 to 2005, the progressive left “was mostly irrelevant to national politics,” a Vox article says (here). “The Cold War was over, and capitalism reigned ascendant.” The parties shifted — the GOP to the right, the Democrats to the center. (Think Bill Clinton.)
Under conservative rule, “The country cracked down on criminals, unauthorized immigrants, and non-working welfare recipients. 9/11 made patriotism mandatory. Same-sex marriage was viewed as politically toxic,” Vox notes.
But then from 2005 to 2020, thanks to George W. Bush’s manifold mistakes “discrediting Republican governance,” progressives’ influence in politics soared. The changes were tangible: A politically-talented black man was elected president, the Supreme Court enshrined same-sex marriage in law, protests blossomed against income inequality and police brutality, and Biden launched the “Green New Deal” in response to climate change.
There came a backlash. The Supreme Court rolled back abortion rights and scuttled Biden’s student loan forgiveness. Companies and universities, under pressure, dumped DEI policies. Social justice movements languished, and immigration became a hot button issue in elections.
Why did this happen? Partly, Vox says, because the left “overreached or screwed up.” (An example I can think of is defunding the police, which never caught on even in liberal strongholds like Seattle.) But also because, when progressives won elections, they struggled to govern effectively. Fairly or unfairly, the left is blamed for inflation, crime, and border chaos.
These shifting political tides made Biden’s grip on the White House untenable, forced Harris to the center, and is making the 2024 election close despite Trump’s egregious flaws as a candidate. Many Republican voters aren’t blind to his bad character or antics, but their voting is motivated by policies.
Meanwhile, on the left, activists may feel exhausted and burned out. But as journalist Bill Moyers noted many years ago, social change is a long slow slog. (Think of a snail on a pole, climbing three feet and sliding back two feet.)
It’s not hopeless. Over the very long pull, Americans have abolished slavery, assimilated waves of immigrants, given women the right to vote and lowered the voting age, and established universal free public education. They’ve adopted a protective stance toward Native American tribes, opened the military and corporate employment to all races, enacted anti-discrimination laws, expanded legal rights and cracked down on police misconduct and abuse, and much more.
All while winning two world wars, overcoming America’s worst economic depression, creating the world’s most technologically advanced and prosperous economy, and sharing its fruits across broader swaths of the population than ever before.
Trumpism, and the Christian nationalist and white supremacy movements attaching to him, represents a significant step backward. But these reactionary currents in American society aren’t a new development; they’re a throwback to the past. Trump is a bad politician, but we’ve had racist and dishonest presidents before. He’s more than a blip, but less than permanent. The pendulum will swing again, because the political tides, like the ocean tides, flow and ebb.