“One way or the other,” meaning win or lose, 2024 will be his last presidential campaign, Trump said in a TV interview aired on Sunday, September 22, 2024 (read story here).
Trump, who will be 82 in November 2028, is already showing signs of physical and mental deterioration during the 2024 campaign, and also often appears tired on the campaign trail.
He’s unpopular, with only one Electoral College victory, and never winning a popular vote. He led his party to defeats in 2018, 2020, and 2022; if he also loses in 2024, he will be 1-for-5 in elections and have lost 4 in a row.
His declaration leaves several big questions up in the air. First, should we believe him? And if he does forsake running again, would he continue to lead the MAGA movement? If not, would it continue without him? If so, who would lead it? Would what happen to the Republican Party, now firmly in Trump’s grip, with its national committee chaired by his daughter-in-law?
Would the GOP return to its pre-Trump roots and revert to the familiar Republican Party of the past or, as Liz Cheney believes (see story here), is it damaged beyond repair and traditional conservatives need to form a new party?
One thing is certain: Trump isn’t immortal. It also seems clear his MAGA following is personally loyal to him, making it more of a cult than a social or political movement, and complicating any transition to new leadership.
My guess is that if Trump loses the 2024 election, he’ll remain the de facto leader of the GOP for a while, and the MAGA movement won’t disband overnight. It will be more like a slow fade into the sunset, in time leaving the party up for grabs, and Vance won’t necessarily be his successor.