I don’t like predicting elections, and won’t try, because elections are unpredictable. So I won’t answer that question.
Making news is a Bloomberg poll released Tuesday, July 30, 2024, showing Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in all seven battleground states (see story here). But polls can be inaccurate, are only a snapshot of the moment, and can shift at the last minute.
For Democrats, it’s encouraging that their party has come together behind Kamala Harris, there will be no messy nominating fight at their convention, enthusiasm is high, and money is pouring in. These are all good signs, and so far there aren’t many or any bad ones.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign is floundering, and seems disorganized. He can’t seem to make up his mind whether to debate her (personally, I think he’d be a fool to try). His messaging is negative, while hers will be hopeful and uplifting. I don’t see many advantages on his side.
While I won’t make a prediction, Harris does seem to be off to a good start, and for what it’s worth, let’s look at what pundits have to say.
- Wall Street traders are backing away from an assumed Trump victory, i.e. unwinding the “Trump trade.”
- Betting odds still favor Trump for now (see website here).
- Three former campaign strategists, 2 Democrats and 1 Republican, all think Harris will win (see story here).
- Allan Lichtman, an academic who has successfully predicted past elections, says his “keys” currently point to Harris winning (see story here).
This may be a case of the betting odds lagging behind the rapidly shifting realities on the ground, I don’t know. I just think there’s a ton of imponderables: Will Harris maintain her momentum? Will Trump recover? Will Harris stumble or falter? Have voters already made up their minds (until now, all polling has favored Trump)? We know voters have a lot of economic angst; will declining inflation change their mood, and change it soon enough? What if Biden has a medical event, and Harris succeeds to the presidency before the election? What if Trump has a health crisis before the election? What if he’s sentenced to prison? What if a foreign crisis intervenes?
As time goes on, if things keep going Harris’s way, it may increasingly look like this election is hers to lose. In that case, I think Trump is more likely to make mistakes than she is. But right now I think there’s a high degree of possibility of the election outcome being influenced by external events that neither candidate can control, so I’d hesitate to say that it’s either candidate’s race to lose.
If that makes me wishy-washy, so be it; you can’t fall off a limb you don’t crawl out on. That’s me in the picture.