Vox asks, “What will it mean for Trump politically? Among commentators and social media posters, there have basically been two separate instinctive — and conflicting — reactions.
“The first reaction: This is a political boon for Trump that makes him more likely to win in November. The second reaction: Don’t get too carried away, it may not make much of a difference. We can’t really say for sure.”
(Read article here.)
Until now, there’s been low public interest in the election, and “questions about whether Trump’s base in particular was less mobilized.” Also, “Conservative news sites were seeing dismal traffic numbers and Trump’s campaign was struggling with small-donor fundraising.”
But that was already changing because of Trump’s New York conviction, so logically the shooting will further shake his supporters out of apathy, and could even get him some sympathy votes.
Those who argue it won’t change the election dynamics say it’s been “very difficult to budge” the polls, and “as shocking as this event was, “the vast majority of voters” already have their views on Trump “and seem quite unlikely to change their minds because of his injury.”
In addition, as more is learned about the shooter, “arguments blaming Democrats or shadowy power brokers for his actions may not come off as convincing to … the general public.”
A wild card is Trump’s response. He could “stay above the fray, sound presidential, and use broadly appealing rhetoric to bring the country together.”
But Trump is who he is, and more likely will revert to his themes of “grievance and revenge.” If he overreaches (by blaming Democrats), that could turn off voters and paint him as an agent of chaos and turmoil.
“So nothing is set in stone,” the Vox article concludes. “The assassination attempt on Trump did not guarantee his victory. It could help his chances. But the campaign will be about more than what happened on Saturday.” This is, of course, guessing. But it makes sense to me.