“Know your enemy better than you know yourself,” Sun Tzu wrote, or phrasing to that effect.
If Hamas leaders are truly diabolical, they would carry out an attack on Israel so atrocious it would provoke a gross overreaction.
That’s exactly what happened. What’s in it for Hamas? Gaza is flattened, but they don’t care about that. They may lose all their fighters, but they’re replaceable. Thousands of innocent Gazans have been killed, but that serves Hamas’ purposes.
How so? Palestinians have never been angrier at Israel, and for Hamas, recruiting probably has never been better. It will come out of this with a beefed-up organization of angrier militants. Meanwhile, Israel’s international reputation is in ruins, and a wedge has been driven between it and its most important ally. The American public’s unqualified support for the State of Israel is a thing of the past.
It’s possible all this happened by accident, and Hamas leaders aren’t really that clever. It’s also possible they laid a trap for Netanyahu’s rightwing government. Whatever the case, it’s clear Israel walked straight into it.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this post is meant to justify what Hamas did. Hamas is an abhorrent terrorist group. What it did on Oct. 7 is repulsive to civilized sensibilities. Israel has a right to defend itself, and the U.S. should support legitimate efforts to do so. And let’s not forget that American citizens were murdered on Oct. 7, too.
What’s happening is so emotionally charged it’s awfully hard to be objective. But let’s try.
Looking at the situation strategically, Hamas is hopelessly outgunned. It’s not even capable of sustained guerilla warfare. Its only ability is to mount shocking and provocative terror attacks. On Oct. 7, it used that ability to the utmost.
Terrorism repulses the world and turns civilized people against the Palestinian cause. So why resort to it? Partly because they have nothing else; but if they can plan strategically and see many chess moves ahead, it can maneuver Israel into being its own worst enemy, as is happening now.
The rest of the world looks at this and sees the status quo hasn’t worked. The cycle of violence, though spasmodic, is unending. The Oct. 7 attacks and Gaza war are only the latest chapter. Hanging over it has always been the threat of a wider regional war, possibly leading to World War 3. So the West has tried to broker a lasting peace, centered on a two-state solution, which the Netanyahu regime rejects.
At this point it’s important to note that, contrary to popular belief and some reporting, the Netanyahu government has the Israeli people’s support. As in America, a major part of the population is rightwing. Thus, a change of government in Israel wouldn’t necessarily result in a major change of policy direction.
But the closer Hamas pushes Israel toward genocide, the weaker Israel becomes. If its goal is eliminating the State of Israel, this is how to accomplish it. States fail not because they’re militarily weak, but because they’re morally weak. By dragging Israel down to its own level, Hamas puts itself in a better position to ultimately win.
For the rest of the world, that would be a bad outcome. The less restrained Israel is, the more it’s a real and present danger. So the West’s strategy at this point should be pressuring Israel to act with more restraint, not only for humanitarian reasons, but because it’s because Israel’s best interests.
If Israel doesn’t, it will continue to play into Hamas’s hands. Netanyahu has been foolish so far, so it not a sure thing he and his cabinet won’t.