I don’t know. It’s not even assured they’ll be the nominees, although both are running. The polls suggest neither are popular, but do polls at this stage really tell us anything about an election over 18 months away? Here’s what one of HorsesAss.org’s most articulate posters says, and based on pure logic, I can’t disagree with him:
This guy named Biden is already President. He kicked Trump’s ass already just two years ago. In fact, maybe one or two Republicans missed it, but Trump’s defeat was so humiliating, and so degrading, that he actually refuses to admit it, even to this very day. He even enlisted a team of crooked lawyers (subsequently disbarred and facing criminal charges) to set up shop in a hotel in Jan of 2021 to plan and execute an attack on the electoral vote. And then he loosed a pipe-bomb riot to attack the Congress. It was wild. Thousands were arrested. Strange thing to pretend not to know about.
So anyway, Biden was and is the WINNER. More Americans cast a vote for that guy in 2020 than have ever voted for anyone in the history of the United States. He basically ran the most successful political campaign in all of recorded history from his home office while wearing a mask. Making him simultaneously both the most successful and laziest political figure in all of recorded human history. That was wild too. And very big news. Another weird thing to pretend to have missed.
So even if this guy named Biden hadn’t already had a tremendously successful first two years to run on, he’d be in a very, very good position to BEAT THE SHIT OUT OF THE VERY SAME LOSER AS LAST TIME. But in fact, he does have a fantastic record to run on. Wow. Something else a Republican pretends to have missed. And even more shocking, this time around he gets to run as an incumbent, piped into voters phones, computers, and televisions whenever he feels like it, flying around on a taxpayer funded 747 accompanied by a massive armored motorcade, and cutting ribbons wherever it suits him. He can hold as many or as few press conferences as he likes, take questions or decline them as he likes, and be supremely confident that the media will cover it and rebroadcast it.
So of course general polls about mood, inclination, or abstract preference taken out of context are not predictive of an election outcome that is still eighteen months away.
But that kind of polling gives a very good indication of what the communication challenges are for the campaigns, and that’s especially true for campaigns representing candidates who are not incumbent, who have a record of only failure, and who are not merely “not the preference” but are in fact REVILED by significant percentages of non-aligned swing state voters.
Biden doesn’t have to pivot. He never has had to pivot. His record is unmatched in terms of success.
And Trump NEVER WILL PIVOT. Despite all the pleading and fervent wish-casting through all these years Trump has never pivoted and never will. His only chance to win last time literally required destroying state electoral certificates and replacing them with fraudulent forgeries. He is hated for that as much as anything. Americans love their vote and they love their democracy. The GOP nominee tried to take it away from them. And he used violence and deadly mayhem in the attempt. He’s a garbage person for a garbage people. That is what MAGA stands for. And everyone knows it.”