Not at all like the 1861-1865 conflict, but potentially just as destructive and bloody.
We don’t have to guess how it would play out; Prof. Barbara F. Walter (profile here), who studies political violence, points out that “far-right groups such as the Proud Boys have told us how they plan to execute a civil war.” (Read story here.)
Their blueprint comes from “The Turner Diaries,” a notorious fictional account of a U.S. civil war accompanied by mass extermination of non-whites, written by a neo-Nazi anti-Semite (details here). This book inspired domestic terrorists like Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh and a variety of mass shooters.
Prof. Walter describes what far-right extremists who talk about “civil war” are planning:
“If a second civil war breaks out in the US, it will be a guerrilla war fought by multiple small militias spread around the country. Their targets will be civilians – mainly minority groups, opposition leaders and federal employees.
“Judges will be assassinated, Democrats and moderate Republicans will be jailed on bogus charges, black churches and synagogues bombed, pedestrians picked off by snipers in city streets, and federal agents threatened with death should they enforce federal law.
“The goal will be to reduce the strength of the federal government and those who support it, while also intimidating minority groups and political opponents into submission.”
She says, “Insurgency experts wondered whether 6 January would be the beginning of such a sustained series of attacks.” This hasn’t happened “in part because of aggressive counter-measures by the FBI,” prominently including the arrests and prosecutions of Capitol rioters.
While she doesn’t specifically talk about rule of law, that’s obviously what is protecting our democratic system and keeping in check those plotting to overthrow it. She discusses a need to regulate social media, which are inflaming extremism.
Meanwhile an outside observer, Canadian novelist Stephen Marche, foresees trouble ahead:
“The United States is a textbook example of a country headed towards civil war. The trends increasingly point one way, and while nobody knows the future, little – if anything – is being done, by anyone, to try to prevent the collapse of the republic. Belief in democracy is ebbing. The legitimacy of institutions is declining. America increasingly is entering a state where its citizens don’t want to belong to the same country. These are conditions ripe for political violence.”
He blames eroding trust of America’s stabilizing institutions: Police, churches, media, academia. And, he says, “Trust in politicians can hardly fall any lower.”
Marche argues the U.S. Constitution, while a “work of genius” in its time, is unresponsive to “the realities of the 21st century.” He criticizes the electoral college system, and alludes to partisan courts.
He says the Supreme Court “feels illegitimate because it is illegitimate … [it] does not reflect the will of the American people.” He’s pessimistic, and believes “the fall of the republic” is inevitable, with election results now only delaying the inevitable.
Prof. Christopher Parker (profile here), a political scientist who recently moved from the University of Washington to a California university, also is pessimistic about the outlook for domestic tranquility. He says, “America is rushing headlong into another civil war, and it’s a matter of when, not if.” And, like the first civil war, he believes it will be race-based. All three of these observers have noted a common thread in civil wars: Ethnic factionalism. In the U.S. that takes the form of a white majority that feels threatened, and a renewed push for white supremacy in society.
He says, “Look for the next civil war to take place after the 2024 election cycle, when the next wave of violence is likely to emerge. Similar to the original civil war, there’s too much at stake for both sides.”
Indeed there is, although not exactly in the way he’s referring to. Americans enjoy peace, freedom, and prosperity almost unique in human history. It would be incredibly stupid to throw all of that away over political quarrels that seem petty in comparison. Like nuclear war, civil wars have no winners; they destroy lives, leave communities in ruins, and impoverish societies.
And if those calling for civil war think they’ll emerge unscathed, they’re kidding themselves. Even if they win, they’ll only get to preside over cemeteries and rubble.
Clearly, political scientists and social observers are worried about America’s heated partisanship, radicalization of parts of its population, and where our country’s dysfunctional politics is taking us. Most Americans don’t want this, but many are fearful, according to polls.
As I said above, rule of law is our bulwark. Our safety depends on prosecuting those who attack elections, threaten government workers, and commit acts of political violence.