Florida is a popular migration destination, but those people are moving into harm’s way.
USA Today says Florida’s population ballooned from 13M in 1992 to 21.5M today, with 3M added in just the last 10 years (read story here).
A study (details here) revealed there’s migration within the state from large cities to smaller ones (e.g., Miami is losing population), but the statewide population growth is due to in-migration from other states, plus several hundred thousand hurricane refugees from Puerto Rico.
Where else are they coming from? Mostly farther north, where winters are cold and snow is deep.
Florida’s attraction has always been a mild climate and cheaper cost of living. Retirees move there from expensive, high-tax places like New York and Connecticut not least because Florida doesn’t have a state income tax. But the newcomers aren’t only old people; these days Florida attracts young jobseekers, too.
There are problems with Florida’s expanding human population bigger than habitat encroachment (i.e., pythons in backyards and alligators in swimming pools). A lot of the housing is flimsy manufactured homes, which is all many of the new residents can afford, that can’t withstands hurricanes (photo below). And people flock to the seashores, for the beaches and sunset views, putting them in harm’s way.
The state is in the throes of a property insurance crisis (see story here). Many of the people who lost homes to Hurricane Ian, whose flooding reached farther inland than anyone thought possible, didn’t have flood insurance either because they thought they were outside the flood zone or couldn’t afford it.
Climate problems will only get worse. As the planet warms, hurricanes will get stronger and more destructive. Florida’s landmass is low-lying, averaging 100′ above current mean sea level, with its highest point only 345′ above MSL; and whether people believe in climate change or not, it’s real, and eventually much of the state will be under water (see article and map here). Some scientists fear that could happen much faster than predicted.
Seattle, where I live, is a rich city with many high-paying jobs, but much less affordable for people with ordinary jobs. The current market value of my house is preposterous; it wasn’t so bad when I bought it, but even then was a reach on my family’s income. Some Seattle homeowners have fabulous mountain and water views, but view property was way over our budget, so all I see from my windows is houses and trees. But snow-capped mountains can be seen from my neighborhood, and there are Puget Sound beaches within easy driving distance.
Winters sometimes bring temporary snow and ice, but it quickly melts, and winters are nothing like the Plains States, Upper Midwest, or Northeast. It can get wet here at times, but I’m on high ground, where flood risk is zero. Even if sea level rose 150′, which it might if Greenland and Antarctica melted, I’d still be on dry ground. There are no tornadoes or hurricanes here. A Mount Rainier eruption or Cascade Subduction Zone megaquake could wreck havoc, but those aren’t exactly annual events, as Tornado Alley or Gulf Coast storms are. I’ll take my chances on that.
I know of young people who moved to Phoenix because they couldn’t afford it here. I understand the money issue; but Phoenix has terribly hot summers (what if the power grid goes down?), faces future water shortages, and for families with school-age kids has poorly-funded schools. Where I live, property taxes are higher, but the schools are better. That’s something we should all want even if we don’t have school-age children. And Seattle has a world-class public university.
Then there’s the small matter of politics. Florida’s Covid-19 death rate is triple Washington’s. There were no problems in my neighborhood with masks or social distancing, and 95% or more of the people here got vaccinated. The pandemic was more survivable here (see, e.g., story here). And Trump caravans with blaring horns didn’t drive through my neighborhood blocking traffic and disturbing the peace.
So why would I pull up stakes and move to Florida or Phoenix? Short answer: I haven’t, and won’t. I like it where I am.
But people continue to move to Florida, hurricanes and all; read the reasons they give here.
