It’s too early to say that.
Polls show a growing number of grassroots Republicans don’t want Trump to run again in 2024, but mostly for the wrong reason: They’re afraid he’d lose.
In mid-July, Forbes reported only “20% of Republicans believe Trump’s behavior on January 6 threatened American democracy, while three-fourths of GOP voters said Trump was just exercising his right to contest the election” (see story here). Most Republicans are still too blinded by partisan loyalty to distinguish between legitimate and illegitimate behavior. Or maybe they just don’t care.
In Missouri, a focus group of 13 Republican voters assembled by pollsters did express concerns about Trump’s “character and behavior,” as reasons for him to not run in 2024 (see story here). One said he “doesn’t deserve” to be president again. But they’re only 13 people. It’s unclear how representative they are.
The poll cited by Forbes found the number of Republican voters who would vote for Biden, a third-party candidate, or abstain has grown from 9% in 2020 to 16% today, but that still leaves 84% of Republicans willing to vote for Trump despite his abysmal character and egregious behavior.
The Republican Party’s official establishment has attacked its two members serving on the House committee investigating the Capitol riot and Trump’s efforts to overthrow our democracy. Those two conscientious Republicans are being ostracized. In Wyoming, Liz Cheney is likely to lose her primary by a wide margin; and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois isn’t running again. Moreover, House Republicans have promised retaliation if they get a majority.
These aren’t the actions of a reputable political party, or one that Americans should vote for.
The right response to Trump’s actions is to say he’s un-American, unfit for public office, this isn’t what we want for our country, and no responsible citizen would vote for him again, nor would a reputable political party support him in any way, shape, or form.
So, while it’s nice to see a few green shoots sprouting here and there, they’re too few and far between to take comfort from. At present the Republican Party and its voter base largely remain a moral and civic wasteland.
Photo: This lawn could be a metaphor for the Republican Party