The 2024 primaries are still a long way away, and in presidential politics, two years are an eternity.
But political forecasting is a popular sport in America, and given several reasons to suspect Biden won’t run again (age, unpopularity, etc.), Democrats are looking around and pundits are parsing the potential field.
If he does run, this probably is academic, because the last time a president got knocked out in the primaries, it took massive protests against the Vietnam War to do it.
The latest poll from New Hampshire (see it here) of Democratic voters’ preferences shows Buttigieg ahead of Biden and everyone else. That’s interesting, and I’ll tell you why.
It helps if a new president has governing experience, knows something about economic and foreign policy, and is in touch with reality — but that’s not what voters primarily (pun intended) look for in a candidate.
In 2024, Democratic voters will be looking for a winner, period. That’s what got Biden the 2020 nomination, but with doubts growing about his re-electability, it’s questionable whether he can reprise that role. The notion of a re-elected Trump, or a President DeSantis, is anathema to them. Preventing that trumps everything (this pun is intentional, too, cheap as it is).
In normal times, presidential nominees tend to be people who climbed the party ladder and held progressively higher positions. They usually come from one of two places: A governor’s mansion or the Senate. They’re typically older, veteran politicians. There are exceptions; JFK sold himself as a youthful and energetic visionary, and Obama rose from state senator to president in just 4 years, largely on the strength of a single humdinger of a speech.
These aren’t normal times. America’s voters are weary, first battered by the financial crisis and then the pandemic, and now war abroad and inflation and shortages at home, not to mention the trauma if a highly abnormal presidency and an attempted violent overthrow of our national government. They may be ripe for another JFK, i.e., someone with youth, energy, vision, and a positive outlook on America’s future.
I recall my mother saying of JFK, “Everyone knew he’d be president someday.” It’s too soon to say that of Buttigieg, not least due to his weakness among black voters. He led in some early 2020 polls, too.
But this bears watching.
