Russia’s Napoleon
“Intercepted communications … revealed that some Russian officials have worried that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine would be costlier and more difficult than … Putin and other Kremlin leaders realize,” CNN reported on Monday, February 7, 2022, just days before Russia is expected to launch an invasion (read story here).
CNN says the “sources said those officials include intelligence and military operatives,” and added, “The [Russian] officials have also grumbled about their plans being discovered and exposed publicly by western nations,” but they’re not expected to resist any orders to carry out the invasion.
Thousands of Russian boys coming home in body bags could be the lesser of their problems.
War is a crapshoot: The best-laid plans of mice and men …. Chance and luck play a large role in determining winners and losers. And enemies (and, nowadays, global warming) have a disconcerting habit of trashing generals’ plans; as Mike Tyson would say, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Just ask Bobby Lee how his Pennsylvania campaign of July 1963 fared, or von Moltke about his scheme to knock off France in August 1914. Or Churchill about Gallipoli.
The only sure thing about war is that nothing’s a sure thing in war. In 1979, the Kremlin sent 140,000 Soviet troops to Afghanistan; a decade later they left with their tails between their legs. It could happen again.
Related story: How Putin’s mind works, here.