I’m pretty certain there’s going to be a war.
And although I hate to say this, a quick conquest of Ukraine by the Russian army might be the best thing for world peace, because a protracted conflict may not end like the Soviet-Afghanistan fiasco did; Putin might respond to unexpected setbacks for the Russian invaders with tactical nukes, or something like that, and any war on the fringe of Europe carries an intrinsic risk of spiraling out of control into World War 3.
But the problem is Putin’s ambitions probably don’t end with bringing Ukraine back into Moscow’s orbit. Ukraine most likely is a stepping stone, and if Moscow’s tanks and divisions keep going into eastern Europe, then you’ve got Russia invading countries that now belong to NATO — and a much larger and potentially perilous war.
This isn’t about Russia’s security, as Putin wants Westerners to believe; it’s about his ambition to rebuild the Soviet empire. When the USSR broke up, some of the pieces became democracies, integrated into the European Union, and joined NATO. He wants to roll back all of that, and his negotiating demands make that clear.
Putin can afford to spend some time in talks. The situation on the ground isn’t quite ripe for military operations. He needs more time to build up and prepare his forces, but not a lot of time. His troops need to go on the move before the ground thaws in mid-March.
President Biden has said he believes Russia will invade Ukraine, despite Western pressure and threats of sanctions. That probably comes from presidential briefings, I don’t get those, but this book (at pp. 144-161, possibly in your local public library), by a competent scholar and journalist, brings into clear focus things you won’t pick up from daily news reports — history, strategic considerations, Putin’s motivations.
And they all point to Russia resorting to force to retake control of Ukraine; not as Putin’s final goal, but as a crucial and indispensable step in rebuilding the Russian empire. If he succeeds, and the West didn’t resist forcefully enough, and the costs to Putin and Russia weren’t high enough, then former Soviet satellite countries farther west might be next.