Besides coordinating with our NATO allies, which Trump would never do, the U.S. has now delivered 180 tons of weapon and ammunition to Ukraine (see story here), with more on the way. This will be used by Ukraine’s army to kill Russian troops if they enter Ukraine uninvited. Biden also has promised to share military intelligence with the Ukrainian forces, to make it easier for them to attack Russian targets.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration “has been in regular discussions with a number of countries and companies in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and Asia about stepping up” shipments of liquified natural gas to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine.
Biden has already arranged to cut Russia off from Western banks, currencies, and credit; and boycotting Russia’s gas exports to Europe would cripple its economy, which is heavily dependent on selling oil and gas to other countries. Energy revenues account for over a third of the Russian government’s income. His administration is also considering export controls that would deny Russia access to U.S. technology (see story here).
Putin seems hellbent on reassembling the pieces of the U.S.S.R. by military force (see story here), and BBC reported yesterday he’s plotting to install a Moscow puppet leader in Ukraine (see story here). But Ukraine is more than just a jigsaw puzzle piece, or even its value as an agriculture asset; it has high strategic value. Forbes says, “Since 2014, Ukraine’s arms embargo has kneecapped Russia’s military;” in particular, without the gas-turbine ship engines produced by Ukrainian factories, Russia’s navy will collapse (see story here).
So the guy is serious about grabbing Ukraine, or at least another chunk of it, and threats of sanctions may not stop him. Most western media, and Biden himself, appear to be assuming Putin will order an invasion. And few, if any, military experts believe the Ukrainian army could defeat the Russian army.
But another option available to Biden and his NATO allies is to make life miserable for Russian occupiers, and prevent a Russian stooge from consolidating power in a conquered Ukraine, by feeding a Ukrainian insurgency, similar to what the CIA did in Afghanistan when the Soviet Union invaded that country in the 1980s (read about that here). And Putin knows how that ultimately turned out for his country. Ukrainians might not have the zeal of Muslim holy warriors, or the same advantages of terrain, but at the very least Putin would have to explain a lot of coffins to the Russian people.
Perhaps the most important thing of all, though, is that Biden is displaying backbone in this crisis. The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan left a perception of weakness and an America willing to betray its friends in its wake. It’s true Biden has taken direct military intervention against a Russian invasion of Ukraine off the table, but you won’t find any military chiefs or analysts who think that’s feasible. The West has few practical options for fending off Putin’s designs on Ukraine, and Biden is employing them all. That sends a message to, among others, China’s rulers that America is back.
Related story: Putin may have backed himself into a corner that leaves him only the military option (read story here).