“By any measure, Charlie Baker is one of the most popular governors in the country,” CNN says (here). “In 2018, he won reelection as Massachusetts’ chief executive with 67% of the vote and his approval ratings regularly crested 60% — even amid the worst throes of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.”
“That Baker did so as a Republican in one of the most Democratic states in the country is absolutely remarkable. In anything close to a normal Republican Party, Baker would be one of its stars — someone touted as a future national leader.”
As in presidential nominee. But that is not to be.
The GOP isn’t a normal party anymore, and Baker (photo, bio here), 65, won’t seek re-election in 2022, even though he loves his job. He doesn’t want to fight his dysfunctional party for the nomination, which is likely to go instead to Geoff Diehl (bio here), a former advertising man who worked for Trump’s 2016 campaign and is endorsed by Trump, which is what it takes to be accepted in GOP circles these days.
This ensures a Democratic win, because there’s no chance a Trumper will be elected governor of deep-blue Massachusetts. We already have a pretty good idea of how that election will play out, because Diehl challenged Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2018; she buried him 60% – 36% (details here).
Trump is widely credited with giving the Democrats two GOP-held Senate seats in Georgia, and now he’s giving the Democrats a New England statehouse. There will be more such giveaways before he’s through with the GOP, and the GOP is through with him. But the bigger loss for the GOP is scarce human capital like Baker. It takes decades to create a political leader of his experience and stature.
What’s happening now to the GOP in Massachusetts foreshadows Trump’s ultimate legacy. A former GOP candidate there says his party is “in a bad place — riddled with conflict, declining membership, declining coffers and declining representation in the state legislature … we’re in a real fight for our existence.”
As good people leave the GOP, and the party becomes ever more marginalized, it will have a harder time competing at the ballot box.