Andrew Latham, a Canadian academic (c.v. here) who teaches at a Minnesota liberal arts college, doesn’t think so.
His argument is the Taliban are a “constellation of factions and tribes, drawn from different ethnic and linguistic groups” that will dissolve in the absence of a common enemy to fight. He refers to “centrifugal tendencies within the Taliban coalition.” And, he says, “even if there is … a Taliban-dominated national government, its writ is unlikely to run much beyond Kabul.” He predicts “chaos and conflict.” (Read his comments here.)
Rule in Afghanistan historically has been decentralized and splintered, reflecting a tribal society with few roads or communications, and a social fabric centered on the village and clan. The country’s leader — whether king or president — was half-jokingly referred to as the “mayor of Kabul,” because he had little influence outside the capital city.
During the Soviet occupation (1979-1989), the foreign invaders were opposed by seven major resistance groups, who didn’t work together, cooperate, or share weapons and resources — and sometimes fought each other.
So there’s plenty of precedent to support the notion that Afghanistan is a disunited country where factionalism, infighting, and civil war can be expected to follow the collapse of the U.S.-supported Kabul government.
Still. The Taliban aren’t just a Pashtun-dominated faction. The Pakistan government is deeply invested in Taliban control of Afghanistan, to the point of sending its own soldiers to fill out Taliban ranks; U.S. intelligence estimated 20% to 40% of Taliban fighters were Pakistanis. With the full backing of Pakistan’s powerful military and intelligence services, it’s unlikely the Taliban would just collapse. Pakistan won’t allow that to happen.
Moreover, Foreign Policy magazine says, the Taliban “have shown themselves to be the most effective political organization in Afghanistan. For two decades, while Afghan politicians have bickered and democracy has faltered, the Taliban’s values, organization, and cohesion have proved enduring.” (Read their article here.)
It’s entirely plausible there will be resistance to Taliban rule inside Afghanistan. It’s equally plausible the Taliban won’t hold back in brutally crushing resistance.
I wouldn’t count on the Taliban fading away.