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What we know about infections among vaccinated people

The Covid-19 pandemic is a dynamic challenge to our society. As new information keeps coming in, specialists improve their understanding, and as threats evolve in terms of new and more transmissible variants coupled with waning vaccine effectiveness, and rising “breakthrough” cases in vaccinated people, we all must be adaptive.

What we know right now is the Delta variant presently sweeping through the U.S.A. is vastly more transmissible than earlier variants, to the point where some experts predict every unvaccinated American will become infected.

As for the vaccines, there’s growing evidence that vaccinated people can infect others, vaccine protection against infection lessens after 5 months or so, but fully vaccinated people remain well protected against serious illness, hospitalization, and death.

As for “breakthrough” cases, i.e., vaccinated people testing positive or becoming ill, NBC News offered up the following data as of Monday, August 9, 2021: “NBC News has found that at least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid and 1,400 of those have died.” (Read story here.)

The exact number they counted is 125,682 “breakthrough” cases in 38 states, which they calculated is “less than 0.08% of the 164.2 million-plus people” in the U.S.A. who are fully vaccinated, or “about one [infection] in every 1,300” vaccinated people; 1,400 deaths from breakthrough cases out to about 1 death for every 117,000 vaccinated people, and those have tended to be among the elderly or vulnerable.

C/Net reported (here), “In early July, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the president’s chief medical advisor, told CBS that 99.2% of COVID deaths are now of unvaccinated people.” That speaks for itself, and speaks in a way no other statistic does.

And, in another story 3 weeks ago (read it here), NBC News acknowledged that fully vaccinated people can get very sick and die from the virus in rare cases. Those individuals tend to be older than 65 or have weakened immune systems or other severe medical conditions, an NBC News survey of health officials nationwide found.” (Italics emphasis added by me.)

Today, CNBC (first link above) said,

“Andrew Freedman, a reader in infectious diseases at the U.K.’s Cardiff Medical School, told CNBC that ‘breakthrough’ cases were to be expected.

“’The vaccines are very good at protecting against severe infection, hospitalization and death but they’re less effective at protecting completely against infection and we know that many people who have been fully vaccinated are still getting delta infections with, in most cases, mild symptoms,’ he told CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box Europe’ on Monday.

“’What we don’t know is whether giving an additional booster will actually increase protection and reduce delta variant infections,’ he noted.”

Another British infectious disease specialist said,

“The delta variant is known to be highly infectious, and as a result we can see from our data and others’ that breakthrough infections are happening in fully vaccinated people. We need to better understand how infectious fully vaccinated people who become infected are, as this will help to better predict the situation in the coming months, and our findings are contributing to a more comprehensive picture of this.”

These comments, of course, are based on British studies. They reflect there’s still a lot we don’t know, especially about the Delta variant.

Booster shots are perhaps the biggest question mark right now. At present, no one in the U.S.A. can get them. But they’re probably coming. The head of Pfizer, which makes one of the two major mRNA vaccines in use here, predicted they’ll be needed by this winter. The CDC and FDA are studying the matter.

Meanwhile, Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the U.S.A. are soaring again, primarily in low-vaccination-rate states, which are mostly in the South. Buyt other states aren’t immune, and Washington, which has a relatively high (but not perfect) vaccination rate, also is seeing a Delta surge.

I have no formal medical training. Here’s what I make of the situation:

  1. The self-preservation benefits of vaccination are obvious and undeniable;
  2. People who don’t get vaccinated aren’t just putting themselves in harm’s way, they’re also prolonging the pandemic and endangering others;
  3. The Delta variant is much more contagious than earlier coronavirus strains, and threatens to reverse the progress made toward ending the pandemic;
  4. Vaccinated people should continue to take other precautions, such as wearing masks in indoor public places and avoiding crowds;
  5. We should all follow best practices and recommended medical advice, as these evolve in the changing situation.

Meanwhile, this blog will do its best to publish trustworthy information from reliable sources, will continue to criticize bad behavior and counterproductive public policies, and will not allow its comment section to be used to spread disinformation, conspiracy theories, or bad advice. The guiding principles here for covering the Covid-19 story are (1) accuracy and (2) responsibility.

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