America’s top general believes China’s military “does not currently have the capability to take Taiwan by force and is not likely to try” anytime soon, The Hill reported on Thursday, June 17, 2021 (read story here).
Gen. Mark Milley (photo), chairman of the Pentagon’s joint chiefs, said he thinks “there’s little intent right now or motivation to do it militarily. There’s no reason to do it militarily, and they know that. So, I think the probability is probably low, in the immediate, near-term future.”
However, China is engaged in a rapid military buildup that could change that calculus within a few years. And Chinese dictator Xi Jinping is known to want to achieve “reunification” with Taiwan while he’s in power. China also has articulated “red lines” that, if crossed, would prompt it to take military action against Taiwan. These include Taiwan declaring independence, acquiring nuclear weapons, or basing U.S. troops there.
But invading Taiwan isn’t easy. It would involve a Normandy-type invasion across a wider swath of water with worse weather, requiring a much larger landing force, against heavily defended beaches. The approach from Taiwan’s Pacific-facing side isn’t feasible, due to lack of beaches and harbors, and steep cliffs. And Taiwan’s military is well dug-in within the island’s mountainous terrain.
Ever since the defeated Chinese Nationalist Army took refuge there after losing China’s civil war to Mao’s communists in 1949, Taiwan has been out of reach of China’s control, and remains so today — for now. But the U.S., to avoid provoking China, treads gingerly and tries to stay on this side of those “red lines.” And China’s military buildup and growing aggressiveness in the region point to a potentially tumultuous future. There can be no doubt that integrating Taiwan, a democracy, into China’s communist system is Beijing’s #1 long-term foreign policy and military objective.