That’s the argument of this article in Foreign Policy magazine.
“[T]he challenges faced by the United States now and for the foreseeable future are maritime,” the author, a defense consultant and naval reserve officer says.
Even Gen. Mark Milley, the chair of the joint chiefs, and an Army officer, said, “The defense of the United States depends on air power and sea power primarily,” indicating, the author says, “that he expected a reprioritization of funding among the services and that the Navy and Air Force should be at the top of the pile” when defense funding is divvied up.
The author points out that, “If the United States and China go to war, it will play out in the vast oceans of the region, not on Chinese shores.”
The Navy, though, he admits, has a credibility problem. Its “track record over the past two decades has done little to inspire confidence in its abilities to acquire ships that actually work, arrive on time, and don’t blow past their planned budgets.” But, he argues, “in terms of any contingency related to a rising China seeking to displace the order of the free world, there are no realistic options without a strong, revitalized Navy.”
An argument by another writer, published at the same time by Foreign Affairs magazine (here), appears to suggest the U.S. instead should seek to avoid war with China by trimming its Far East commitments; I haven’t read it, because it’s behind a paywall, but the question that immediately pops into mind is whether that means abandoning Taiwan.
That’s always a possibility, of course; but if the U.S. did that would any country ever trust us again? I suspect allowing a rapacious dictatorship devour a friend and ally would lead to many other countries deciding to build their own nuclear arsenals. And that would increase the risk of a nuclear war occurring manifold. In the long run, defending Taiwan might prove far cheaper than letting it go.
Related story: A Chinese man escaped from China by crossing the Taiwan Strait in a rubber dinghy, Taiwanese police said on Saturday, May 2, 2021. Read story here.
Photo below: All of the U.S. Navy’s aging minesweepers are nearing retirement, while China is acquiring tens of thousands of mines. Read about the Navy’s strategy for dealing with them here.
