The first thing to remember about elections is the certified result is what counts. Everything leading up to that is part of the counting process.
Recount laws vary by state. Wisconsin has no provision for an automatic recount, but candidates can request a recount at their expense if the margin is under 1%, or at state expense if the margin is under 0.25%. The state also will pay for a recount if it changes the result.
In Wisconsin, with virtually all ballots counted, Biden leads by 0.63%, so the Trump campaign can request a recount if they pay for it, and they’ve indicated they will. With over 3.2 million votes cast, they need to overcome a Biden lead of 20,517 votes. In a normal recount, that’s virtually impossible.
Almost always, both candidates will gain votes from a recount. That’s because the recount picks up votes that were missed in the initial count because of machine errors, misplaced ballots, and the like. But this number is typically very small. Campaign strategists can expect the recount to shift the final tally one direction or the other by a few hundred votes, perhaps a couple thousand, but 20,000 votes is out of reach.
The 2004 Washington governor’s election is illustrative. After the initial tally, Rossi (R) led Gregoire (D) by a few hundred votes (out of roughly 2.8 million). The first recount, conducted by machine, cut Rossi’s lead in half, but he still led. The second recount, done by hand, left Gregoire 8 votes ahead, not counting several hundred disputed ballots to be resolved by the King County (which includes Seattle) canvassing board. Both candidates got more votes from that ballot pool, but Gregoire got 121 more than Rossi, giving her a 129-vote lead in the final certified result. (Washington law allows only 2 recounts.) Rossi then contested the results in court under Washington’s election contest law, but the court proceedings resulted in subtracted 4 votes from Rossi’s tally, and Gregoire won by 133 votes.
My reason for bringing up the Washington example is to show how hard it is to change the results of an election in a recount or election contest lawsuit if the difference is more than a few hundred votes in a statewide election involving 2 or 3 million total votes. Overcoming a 20,000-vote deficit in a state the size of Washington or Wisconsin in a recount or election contest is a practical impossibility.
Assuming Wisconsin stays in Biden’s column, which it almost certainly will, if Biden holds onto his leads in Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, he will have 270 electoral votes. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, the final result will be Biden 270 – Trump 268. That’s all Biden needs, but he also could win one or more of those other three states. While nothing is certain at this point, Biden’s prospects currently look better than Trump’s.
In 2016 Wisconsin did not complete the recount until December 13th. The electoral college did not meet until December 18th. This year the electoral college meets on December 14th. And the Trump campaign cannot ask for the recount until the day after the last county reports certified results to the canvass board. The Trump campaign challenged the recount and one reason they challenged was the possibility that the count would not be completed in time for Wisconsin to certify the lection in time for the electors to meet. They lost the court challenge. A fortuitous loss? Protests in Wisconsin to add to the drama.
Worth doing if it denies the other guy electoral college votes in a close election. Machivelli would advise the Prince to do it.
Wisconsin certifies on Dec. 1, so there’s enough time for a recount, if the Trump campaign wants to pay approx. $3.5 million for one. There were recounts in 2000, 2004, 2011, and 2016, and none of them changed the final tally by more than 300 votes.