Covid-19 is a (relatively) gentle reminder that we can’t take “normal” life for granted; things could change (for the worse) tomorrow.
Just as some people study stock market risks, there are others (mostly academics) who study civilizational risks. These are divided into two broad categories, x-risks (extinction risks) and s-risks (suffering risks).
X-risks are those leading to the total extinction of humanity, called “extinction events.” Examples include an asteroid hitting earth, all-out nuclear war, or an uncontrollable pandemic. S-risks fall short of wiping out humanity, but result in widespread suffering and quality of life so low that death would be preferable for most people.
The BBC, in a series of articles, explores some of these risks. Links are provided below.
A global totalitarian seizes power, can’t be defeated or displaced, and creates a perpetual “world in chains.” The likeliest agent of such a catastrophe is a technology such as artificial intelligence. Read story here. While that threat may not be just around the corner, at the present time, democracy’s future seems shakier now that at any time since World War 2. Read that story here.
Civilizational collapse. History, so far, tells us no civilization is permanent. All past civilizations have met this fate (see chart below). Up to now, the average lifespan of civilizations is 336 years. Read story here. Computer modeling reveals the two key factors in civilizational collapse are ecological strain (including resource depletion) and economic stratification (leading, not to political upheaval, but to a population crash). Read story here.
Short-termism, which roughly means failure to consider the future consequences of our present actions. (Waving aside human-induced climate change comes to mind.) One of the causes is “temporal exhaustion,” meaning that dealing with the present is so mentally taxing that we have no energy left to think about the future. Some people consider this the greatest threat of all to humanity’s future. Read story here.
Natural disasters aside, the common thread running through most threats to civilization is that they’re self-inflicted; societies die, not from external invasion, but from internal stress and collapse.
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