Are you a political junkie who obsesses over polls, reads political news on an hourly basis, and chews your fingernails to nubbins because you wish the election was OVER and can’t stand waiting to find out WHO WILL WIN???
If so, this article is for you. Warning: It’s long, boring, and from CNN. Spoiler alert: It does not predict a winner (although it makes strong insinuations suggestions about who’s in trouble).
This analysis focuses on the Rust Belt states, where Clinton lost the 2016 election, and where Biden could cinch it. Which makes sense, because that’s where Trump won the election (read story here), and is where he will lose it (if he does). Paint a bullseye on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, because if Biden wins those states, Trump is toast.
And it dives into the demographic analyses that have almost become cliches: Whites without college degrees (a slim majority in these states), whites with college degrees, suburban moms, minorities, and young voters. If you like crunching numbers with “%” after them, this analysis is for you. (Hint: In the political world there are plenty of people who do this for a living.)
I grew up in a Rust Belt state at a time when manufacturing was the backbone of economies there, and white guys with high school diplomas who worked on shop floors belonged to unions and were the backbone of the Democratic coalition. (For an analysis of how things were then, and why the Rust Belt became a rust belt, go here.) Back then, the Democratic Party was conservative; those voters, and the politicians they elected, were anti-communist, for the Vietnam war, and frankly quite racist by today’s standards.
They’re all dead now, except for a few guys in their 90s. Their blue-collar sons and grandsons like to say, “I didn’t leave the Democratic Party; the Democratic Party left me.” There’s truth in that; the party changed more than they did, so they went shopping for another party, and found one. But they’re members of a shrinking voter bloc; and even as the GOP scooped up this group, it lost the college-educated.
And Biden, an old-time Democrat, has the ability to peel some of them away. If he beats Trump, it will be with help from a significant number of these voters; and Democrats should understand that his victory is a one-off, and if their party veers too far left, they will be right back where they were pre-Biden. That, I think, is the most important inference to be drawn from this analysis. It’s also my gut sense of things, and I’ve been up to my neck in politics for 60 years, so my gut knows what it’s burbling about.
Photos: (Top) Old-time Democrats and (bottom) where they worked. (Middle) Wisconsin Republican, circa 2016.
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Wouldn’t it be a shock if Culp beats Ensley and that leads to Trump winning Washington. Not a likely scenario, but it could happen. I think Ensley is vulnerable, though Culp may not be the candidate to fully capitalize on all the hay standing in the fields. Then again Culp is likeable and Ensley’s policy choices and run for President has weakened his appeal. Which is why political junkies and CNN could miss this unlikely surprise. Though for some reason the powers that be don’t understand the popularity of $30 car tabs. Now there will be another car tab vote.
What does it say about you that you can’t (or refuse to) spell Gov. Inslee’s name correctly? How would you like it if someone habitually misspelled your name?
Of course $30 car tabs are popular. So is no income tax, no payroll tax, and no sales tax. When voters approved Sound Transit 2 & 3, did they think the Tooth Fairy would pay it? The answer clearly is yes. The proof? Some years ago, we had twin initiatives on the same ballot, one mandating smaller class sizes, the other raising the sales tax to pay for it. Voters approved smaller class sizes, but defeated the tax, so the smaller class sizes didn’t happen, because you get what you pay for. The same thing happened with the West Seattle monorail. Voters approved it 5 times, but when the legislature closed a loophole that enabled them to dodge the monorail tax, they demanded a revote and defeated it. People will always take stuff they can get free. The car tab taxes pay for things that voters approved which aren’t free. You can’t have it both ways; if you don’t want to pay for it, then don’t vote for it.