The-Ave.US

A China analyst at Fitch Solutions, a subsidiary of a major credit rating agency, thinks, “The U.S. and China have ‘diametrically opposed values’ and will eventually slip into a ‘new cold war’ in the coming decades,” CNBC reported on Wednesday, September 30, 2020.

Probably nearly every American is aware of the potential for military conflicts over Taiwan and the South China Sea, both of which China claims as sovereign territory, and which it may someday try to take by force, which might provoke a U.S. military intervention. I’ve written before on this blog about China’s military buildup aimed at challenging American power.

I think it’s a sleeper issue and the future outlook is more ominous than most Americans realize. It’s not hyperbole to say China is preparing for war with the United States. Of course, we prepare for war against other countries, but that doesn’t mean we want to fight them, we just want to be ready in case we have to. You could say the same of China’s preparations, but they’ve become more aggressive under Chairman Xi, and the evolving situation bears watching.

On the American side, it’s generally believed that China prefers to avoid direct military confrontation with the U.S., but would be willing to go that route to achieve its aims. The Chinese population is becoming more patriotic and anti-American, another possible prelude to eventual war.

But the Fitch analyst foresees a drawn-out ideological, economic, and military struggle, similar to the Cold War with the Soviet Union, with the world splitting into pro-U.S. and pro-China blocs, with some neutrals. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Phillippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam are caught in the middle. Of course, there’s always an element of unpredictability in international rivalry, because both sides are reacting to what the other does. That’s more or less how the world fell into the First World War, which no one wanted, planned, or expected.

Meanwhile, the analyst notes, “Consumers from both sides already appear to be boycotting products from each other, as nationalism rose after the coronavirus pandemic broke out. A … survey found that 41% of Americans will not buy ‘Made in China’ products again, while 35% of Chinese will not buy ‘Made in USA’ goods.” I’ve been boycotting “Made in China” for years, mostly because of their crappy (and sometimes toxic) quality, but also because I don’t want my money paying for Chinese weapons. So I guess you could call that “nationalism.”

I’m certainly no expert on China-U.S. relations, although I read on the subject. I find it difficult to shop for reading material because competent objectivity is hard to find in this field, due to the prevalence of ideological biases. For that reason, it’s useful to read up on what critics think of the proposed reading materials. When you read books by popular authors like Jared Diamond and Robert Kaplan, you want to know what ideological product they’re selling; you might not want to buy it. They may be worth reading anyway, but you may have to separate wheat from chaff.

What’s clear is that managing America’s relations with China, which necessarily will be geared to containing China’s territorial and hegemonic ambitions, is a very complicated task. I don’t trust the current White House occupant to handle it.

Return to The-Ave.US Home Page