Amidst the horror caused by Trump’s abandonment of the Syrian Kurds, there is another bombshell waiting for his irresponsibility .. Iraq’s Kurdistan.
An article from Le Monde tells the story. Iraq is unstable and getting more so because of a huge increase in young people who are unable to get jobs in a country where vast oil wealth is going to the wealthy and to overseas countries.
Amidst this, there is Kurdistan, now a self governing region of Iraq, that has oil, cultural cohesion, a belief in democracy rare in the Middle East and, until last week, a faith in the role of the US is supporting the Kurd’s efforts to be allowed to develop their own people. Worse, Iraq’s Kurds are another oppressed minority as in Iran, now Turkey and now Syria.
The role of the US under Trump is unlikely to do much good for any part of Iraq. The Shiite majority might turn to Iran except that Iran, aside from also being Shiite, is also not Arab. Iraq is also unlikely to have any reason to ally with the Saudi’s given the regimes bizarre form of Sunni Islam and its feudal family sponsored by the US .. a story all to reminiscent of the Shah.
Where does that leave Iraqi Kurdistan? Russia? Hardly a paradigm for anything other than plutocracy and kleptocracy.
The Kurds and Iraqis will have to figure something out. Or being between three regional powers (the Saudis, Turks and Iranians) is going to be interesting. Of course there are the traditional tried and true ways of the Middle East of playing the regional powers off one another or even ummm building up your military power. Mohammed did this and invaded everyone before they could invade him.
China would probably insist the Iraqis go off the petro dollar, The kinder gentler Chinese will save the day.