Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders strike me as old and tired issues. People like Joe and the Bernie enthusiasm continues among his fans but a recent YouGov poll asked Democrats to list all the candidates they were considering.
Only 67 percent of the Democrats are considering multiple candidates.
According to a May 18-21 poll
| CATEGORY | SHARE OF VOTERS | |
|---|---|---|
| Considering multiple candidates | 67% | |
| Bernie Sanders or bust | 8 | |
| Joe Biden or bust | 8 | |
| Someone else or bust | 6 | |
| Not considering any current candidates | 5 | |
| Elizabeth Warren or bust | 3 | |
| Beto O’Rourke or bust | 1 | |
| Cory Booker or bust | 1 | |
| Pete Buttigieg or bust | 1 | |
| Kamala Harris or bust | 1 | |
The striking thing about this poll is that the anybody but category is at 6%, just about the same as the votes for Bernie alone or Biden alone! Next on the list of fanatic voters .. WARREN!
Then there is the reality of the way we stage our primaries. Iowa will come first. Anything can happen there but Iowa is a caucus state and machine politics work great in caucuses. Get out the vote counts and that means boots on the ground. From what I have read, it is Warren that has the boots.
Bernie Sanders .. No one will get 50% in Iowa!
Next comes New Hampshire. New Hampshire is made for Hollywood with great scenes in Magda’s diner and trudges through the snow for a townhall. Somehow Biden and Bernie do not fit that mold. Neither is all that good at TV. Warren is and she comes form the mother state ofr New Hampshire .. Massachusetts! Elizabeth has the other advantage. Her big supporter .. Trump! It would not take more than a few insults of Pocahontas to motivate the good New England folk.
This does not mean Warren will be our next President. Before I give her the nomination, next come primaries in South Carolina and Nevada. Biden needs to win Nevada because it is a strong organized labor state. But he needs to know that Nevada is next to California. Watch out for Harris! As for the Palmetto state, Bernie and Biden, as individuals or as a team, will lose in South Carolina because they are not black.
Kamila Harris will win and South Carolina because she is tight with the Black community. Ms. Harris next HUGE victory is in California.
For n election that normally for whoever gets it is like getting a stinky diaper there are a lot of candidates to choose from. Still it is a money game and to hang in there requires deep pockets or luck. or a lot of both. Bernie Sanders should do well, but frankly he is the guy to beat. He does well in the opening debates and a little mo a socialist is the democratic nominee. That scares a lot of conservative and corporate Dem, but why not in an election the Dems statistically will lose because the other guy is a sitting president and the economy is doing great or ok.
Warren or Harris may be running for the VP position as much as the top. Not sure anyone runs for the VP as both parties have surrendered the pick to whoever wins the top spot rather than tell their champion ummmm so and so has actually earned the VP spot if they want it by the number of votes they had coming into the convention and are good for the ticket. Trump’s pick of Pence for VP has been one of the better VP picks though frankly the pick should have gone to someone who actually ran in the primaries for the nomination.
It may come down to whoever can consistently come in 2nd in a lot of races. This is a big pool of candidates. California has moved its primary up so a candidate from California could get a big boost if California’s were to pick a favored son or daughter. Super Tuesday in March could determine the nominee. It may not and it could be a long race, and it will come down to who has the money, or Dems have a real convention with no clear winner going in. Sorry Bernie that means you are screwed again unless you are just short and can make a deal. I think Kamala would be a good pick.
The big question is whether whoever runs if this will be their last moment in the sun should they go down in defeat. It will be fun if some who really don’t want the nomination this time have to stay in because there is no leader or leaders in the race.
And the nominee is Captain Jack Sparrow! Don’t miss the party on Tortuga, and well he can be Presidential. Warn visitors to the White House about the monkey, he bites.