NATE SILVEROne thing seems fairly clear, as we wait for the first swing state dominoes to fall: If Trump wins the Electoral College tonight, and it remains something of a long shot, it’s going to be with narrow wins in a large number of swing states instead of something more emphatic. And it’s going to be a very long night, possibly including an Electoral College-popular vote split.
As a reminder, the odds you see on the right-hand side of this page are based only on pre-election projections and called states. Clinton isn’t really a 73 percent favorite right now — Trump holds narrow leads in many swing states, some of which are likely to be called for him eventually, so her actual odds are probably lower.
The forecast you see on the right-hand rail is based only on called states. But we did build in a Plan B in the event of an election like tonight: We can override our initial forecast by declaring a state “too close to call” and changing the model’s forecast. We’re doing that in Michigan right now, setting the odds at 50/50 there, and we’ll be monitoring other states for whether they need similar treatment.